- The Astros are -155 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Philadelphia Phillies (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-155) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 13-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 15-10 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -120 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | U 7.5 +100 | -155 |
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Astros and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+14.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+15.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+10.55 Units / 75% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.70 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 10-16 against the Run Line (-10.85 Units / -30.78% ROI).
- 13-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -10.55% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -11.98% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 3.51% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 15-10 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 10.01% ROI).
- 14-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -8.06% ROI
- 15-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.05 Units / 18.3% ROI
- 9-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.4 Units / -27.01% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (29/87) against Aaron Nola this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (14/84) against Aaron Nola this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .632 (12 Total Bases / 19 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .388 — fourth Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .706 (12 Total Bases / 17 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — eighth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (450/955) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (365/537) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (53/78) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 17-68 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .120.
The Phillies are 13-69 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Phillies are 37-15 (.712) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Phillies are 1-11 (.083) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 3-7 (.300) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Astros are 42-61 (.408) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Astros are 41-36 (.532) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
The Astros are just 0-8 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
29% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .529 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .322 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 38 strikeouts in 263 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 359 strikeouts in 2,113 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 739 strikeouts in 4,194 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .187 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 11 double plays in 169 opportunities (7%) this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Phillies have allowed 5.85 runs per game (76/13) on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Back, D10
- Taijuan Walker (Phillies): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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