- The Astros are -135 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Saturday, April 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 5:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 14-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 15-11 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -115 | +115 |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -105 | -135 |
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Astros and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+15.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+9.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.35 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+14.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+10.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Cristian Javier | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +105 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 50% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+3.85 Units / 14% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 11-16 against the Run Line (-9.85 Units / -26.69% ROI).
- 14-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -7.15% ROI
- 12-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -14.93% ROI
- 15-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 6.73% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 15-11 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 6.95% ROI).
- 14-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -11.56% ROI
- 15-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.05 Units / 14.16% ROI
- 10-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.4 Units / -22.34% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (25/58) against Zack Wheeler when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.6 MPH on inside pitches since the 2020 season (597 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 85.4
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season (204 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 80.4
Zack Wheeler has a strikeout rate of 40% (10 SO in 25 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has struck out 39% (121/313) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .161 (46-for-285) against Cristian Javier since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 99th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 60% of the time (148/248) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (960/1,979) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are just 0-5 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Phillies are 17-68 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 13-69 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Phillies are 5-5 (.500) when underdogs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 3-8 (.273) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Astros are 41-37 (.526) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Astros are 106-2 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Astros are just 1-10 (.091) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
30% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Phillies are batting .279 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .364 with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Phillies hitters are slugging .457 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 741 strikeouts in 4,197 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 361 strikeouts in 2,116 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .187 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 10 of 211 batters (5%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 205 of 3,092 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.05 (817.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Back, D10
- Taijuan Walker (Phillies): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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