- The are -145 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler, 2.67 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, 1.42 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Saturday, November 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Houston for this World Series game.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 97-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 92-82 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -185 | O 7 -120 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | U 7 +100 | -145 |
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s World Series Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s World Series matchup with 54.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today, World Series
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 54 away games (+19.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 41 games (+16.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 54 away games (+13.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 47 away games (+12.25 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 49 of his last 85 games at home (+19.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 43 games at home (+12.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 43 games at home (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| David Hensley | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +105 |
| David Hensley | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| David Hensley | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -165 |
| Zack Wheeler | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 59 away games (+21.98 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 128 games (+17.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 127 games (+9.35 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 away games (+7.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.83 Units / 36% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 161 games (+31.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 99 of their last 172 games (+30.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 109 of their last 158 games (+27.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 155 games (+17.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games at home (+11.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 91-84 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 0.8% ROI).
- 97-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 2.06% ROI
- 89-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 1.21% ROI
- 79-89 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.6 Units / -9.17% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 92-82 against the Run Line (+12.8 Units / 6.24% ROI).
- 116-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.75 Units / 7.52% ROI
- 63-100 when betting on the total runs Over for -45.6 Units / -23.92% ROI
- 100-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +30.2 Units / 15.67% ROI
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH against his fastballs since the start of last season (598 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH since the start of last season (936 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.4 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (172 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 87.9
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (394/825) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (312/459) against Framber Valdez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 94-22 (.810) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Phillies are batting .176 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (3,972 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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