Phillies vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Nov 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 05, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The are -145 favorites vs the Phillies
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler, 2.67 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, 1.42 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Philadelphia Phillies (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Saturday, November 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Houston for this World Series game.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 97-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 92-82 ATS.

Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -185O 7 -120+120
Astros -1.5 +150U 7 +100-145

Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s World Series Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s World Series matchup with 54.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Astros vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today, World Series

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 54 away games (+19.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 41 games (+16.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 54 away games (+13.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 47 away games (+12.25 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 49 of his last 85 games at home (+19.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.75 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 43 games at home (+12.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 43 games at home (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)

Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
David Hensley 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Jose Altuve 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Chas McCormick 0.5 -155 0.5 +105
David Hensley 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -210 0.5 +145
Jose Altuve 0.5 -250 0.5 +160

Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Chas McCormick 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
David Hensley 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Jose Altuve 0.5 +275 0.5 -450

Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Framber Valdez 6.5 +115 6.5 -165
Zack Wheeler 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 59 away games (+21.98 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 128 games (+17.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 127 games (+9.35 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 away games (+7.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.83 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 161 games (+31.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 99 of their last 172 games (+30.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 109 of their last 158 games (+27.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 155 games (+17.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games at home (+11.70 Units / 17% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 91-84 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 0.8% ROI).

  • 97-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 2.06% ROI
  • 89-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 1.21% ROI
  • 79-89 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.6 Units / -9.17% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 92-82 against the Run Line (+12.8 Units / 6.24% ROI).

  • 116-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.75 Units / 7.52% ROI
  • 63-100 when betting on the total runs Over for -45.6 Units / -23.92% ROI
  • 100-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +30.2 Units / 15.67% ROI

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH against his fastballs since the start of last season (598 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.3

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH since the start of last season (936 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.4 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (172 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 87.9

Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (394/825) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (312/459) against Framber Valdez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Astros are 94-22 (.810) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

The Phillies are batting .176 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (3,972 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.