Phillies vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 29, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Phillies
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler, 1.77 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, 1.42 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Philadelphia Phillies (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Saturday, October 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Houston for this World Series game.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 96-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 90-79 ATS.

Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -185O 7 -115+120
Astros -1.5 +150U 7 -105-145

Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s World Series Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s World Series matchup with 56.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today, World Series

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 53 away games (+18.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+15.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 53 away games (+12.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 38 games (+12.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+11.60 Units / 105% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 48 of his last 84 games at home (+18.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games at home (+11.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Chas McCormick 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Jose Altuve 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -210 0.5 +150
Chas McCormick 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -210 0.5 +145
Jose Altuve 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -165 0.5 +115

Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Chas McCormick 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Jose Altuve 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Framber Valdez 5.5 -135 5.5 -105
Zack Wheeler 4.5 -165 4.5 +115
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 58 away games (+20.98 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 124 games (+19.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 68 of their last 123 games (+10.85 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.43 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 away games (+7.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 99 of their last 157 games (+29.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 168 games (+27.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 106 of their last 154 games (+25.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 83 of their last 151 games (+16.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 90-83 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 1.14% ROI).

  • 96-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 1.92% ROI
  • 88-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 0.71% ROI
  • 79-88 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -8.75% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 90-79 against the Run Line (+12.65 Units / 6.32% ROI).

  • 113-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.6 Units / 7.64% ROI
  • 62-97 when betting on the total runs Over for -43.45 Units / -23.45% ROI
  • 97-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +28.2 Units / 15.07% ROI

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.3 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (459 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 85.3

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH against his fastballs since the start of last season (598 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.3

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH since the start of last season (936 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (394/825) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Astros are 55-26 (.679) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Astros are 43-15 (.741) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Phillies hitters are slugging .237 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Astros pitchers this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.