- The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler, 1.77 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, 1.42 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Saturday, October 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Houston for this World Series game.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 96-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 90-79 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -185 | O 7 -115 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | U 7 -105 | -145 |
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s World Series Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s World Series matchup with 56.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today, World Series
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 53 away games (+18.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+15.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 53 away games (+12.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 38 games (+12.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+11.60 Units / 105% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 48 of his last 84 games at home (+18.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games at home (+11.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +150 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 -105 |
| Zack Wheeler | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 58 away games (+20.98 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 124 games (+19.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 68 of their last 123 games (+10.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.43 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 away games (+7.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 99 of their last 157 games (+29.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 168 games (+27.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 106 of their last 154 games (+25.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 83 of their last 151 games (+16.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 90-83 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 1.14% ROI).
- 96-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 1.92% ROI
- 88-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 0.71% ROI
- 79-88 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -8.75% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 90-79 against the Run Line (+12.65 Units / 6.32% ROI).
- 113-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.6 Units / 7.64% ROI
- 62-97 when betting on the total runs Over for -43.45 Units / -23.45% ROI
- 97-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +28.2 Units / 15.07% ROI
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.3 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (459 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 85.3
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH against his fastballs since the start of last season (598 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH since the start of last season (936 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (394/825) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 55-26 (.679) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 43-15 (.741) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters are slugging .237 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Astros pitchers this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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