- The Phillies are +100 favorites vs the Astros
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (10-13), 3.35 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr. (4-1), 2.37 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 86-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 85-74 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -120 | +100 |
| Astros | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 +100 | -120 |
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 58 away games (+20.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 56 away games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 62 away games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 away games (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 76 games at home (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -110 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 109 games (+11.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 away games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 108 games (+4.65 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 94 of their last 146 games (+31.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 157 games (+24.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 97 of their last 143 games (+19.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 140 games (+16.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games at home (+11.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 80-79 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -1.42% ROI).
- 86-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -0.9% ROI
- 80-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI
- 73-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -8.09% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 85-74 against the Run Line (+12 Units / 6.38% ROI).
- 104-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.5 Units / 5.18% ROI
- 59-90 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.75 Units / -22.26% ROI
- 90-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.3 Units / 13.78% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (552/789) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 7.8 (226/29) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 203 of Aaron Nola’s 429 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 47%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 281 batters (3%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Lance McCullers Jr.: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (886/2,497) against Lance McCullers in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 80% of the time (1,367/1,719) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Lance McCullers has thrown his curveball 50% of the time (857/1,719) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (18/155) against Lance McCullers with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 189 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Phillies are 14-55 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .117.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Astros are 53-25 (.679) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Astros are 92-21 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Astros are 48-7 (.873) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .539 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,725 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .345 (754 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Phillies hitters are slugging .498 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 690 strikeouts in 3,880 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 310 strikeouts in 1,799 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have just 820 strikeouts in 4,540 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Phillies pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 183 of 2,831 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .258 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros have allowed 3.27 runs per game (265/81) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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