Phillies vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 03, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies are +100 favorites vs the Astros
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (10-13), 3.35 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr. (4-1), 2.37 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 86-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 85-74 ATS.

Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +165O 7.5 -120+100
Astros +1.5 -200U 7.5 +100-120

Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 58 away games (+20.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 56 away games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 62 away games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 away games (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 76 games at home (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)

Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chas McCormick 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
Jose Altuve 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chas McCormick 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jose Altuve 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +120 0.5 -175

Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chas McCormick 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Jose Altuve 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +400 0.5 -700

Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Lance McCullers Jr. 5.5 -125 5.5 -110
Aaron Nola 5.5 -160 5.5 +115
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 109 games (+11.00 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 away games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 108 games (+4.65 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 94 of their last 146 games (+31.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 157 games (+24.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 97 of their last 143 games (+19.00 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 140 games (+16.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games at home (+11.45 Units / 13% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 80-79 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -1.42% ROI).

  • 86-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -0.9% ROI
  • 80-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI
  • 73-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -8.09% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 85-74 against the Run Line (+12 Units / 6.38% ROI).

  • 104-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.5 Units / 5.18% ROI
  • 59-90 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.75 Units / -22.26% ROI
  • 90-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.3 Units / 13.78% ROI

Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (552/789) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 7.8 (226/29) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have chased 203 of Aaron Nola’s 429 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 47%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 281 batters (3%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Lance McCullers Jr.: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (886/2,497) against Lance McCullers in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.

Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 80% of the time (1,367/1,719) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Lance McCullers has thrown his curveball 50% of the time (857/1,719) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (18/155) against Lance McCullers with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 189 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Phillies are 14-55 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .117.

The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Astros are 53-25 (.679) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Astros are 92-21 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Astros are 48-7 (.873) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

Phillies hitters are slugging .539 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,725 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .345 (754 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Phillies hitters are slugging .498 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Astros hitters have just 690 strikeouts in 3,880 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 310 strikeouts in 1,799 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Astros hitters have just 820 strikeouts in 4,540 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Phillies pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 183 of 2,831 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .258 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Astros have allowed 3.27 runs per game (265/81) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.