Phillies vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Astros (104-56) are -200 favorites vs the Phillies (87-73)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (10-6), 3.36 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (17-4), 1.80 ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Philadelphia Phillies (+165) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-200) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 87-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 85-75 ATS.

Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -135O 7 -120+165
Astros -1.5 +110U 7 +100-200

Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 58 away games (+20.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 56 away games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 62 away games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 away games (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 76 games at home (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)

Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Chas McCormick 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Jose Altuve 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Chas McCormick 0.5 -160 0.5 +110
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -105 0.5 -140
Jose Altuve 0.5 +100 0.5 -140
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Chas McCormick 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Jose Altuve 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Justin Verlander 6.5 +115 6.5 -160
Ranger Suarez 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
  • No trends found
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+5.50 Units / 9% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 81-79 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -0.89% ROI).

  • 87-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -0.47% ROI
  • 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -0.76% ROI
  • 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.1 Units / -7.46% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 85-75 against the Run Line (+11 Units / 5.81% ROI).

  • 104-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.3 Units / 4.73% ROI
  • 59-91 when betting on the total runs Over for -39.8 Units / -22.73% ROI
  • 91-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +25.3 Units / 14.26% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (95/151) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (23/167) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (645/1,204) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (420/732) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.

Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .231 (649 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .277 (169 Total Bases / 610 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .277 (169 Total Bases / 610 ABs) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .400 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has walked 28 of 650 batters (4%) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Phillies are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 14-55 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Phillies are 72-24 (.750) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Astros are 45-5 (.900) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Astros are 84-8 (.913) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Astros are 48-7 (.873) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .774 (1,725 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Phillies are batting .179 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Astros hitters have just 693 strikeouts in 3,884 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Astros are batting .188 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Astros hitters have just 313 strikeouts in 1,803 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 1,168 strikeouts in 5,978 PA’s (20%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 183 of 2,840 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,814 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.