- The Astros (105-56) are -200 favorites vs the Phillies (87-74)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (6-4), 3.90 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (16-6), 2.88 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Philadelphia Phillies (+165) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-200) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 87-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 86-75 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -130 | O 7.5 -115 | +165 |
| Astros | -1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -105 | -200 |
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 58 away games (+20.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 56 away games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 62 away games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 away games (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 76 games at home (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -175 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- No trends found
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 81-80 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -1.47% ROI).
- 87-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -0.89% ROI
- 81-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.2% ROI
- 74-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -7.99% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 86-75 against the Run Line (+12 Units / 6.31% ROI).
- 105-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.3 Units / 5.04% ROI
- 60-91 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.8 Units / -22.01% ROI
- 91-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.3 Units / 13.62% ROI
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has an average spin rate of 1915.0 RPM on fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 2228.4 — third Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (476/1,029) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 40% of the time (516/1,284) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (82/248) against Bailey Falter this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (369/548) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (116/171) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (633/926) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (310/454) against Framber Valdez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 14-56 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-57 (.162) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 71-5 (.934) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 6-42 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Astros are 85-8 (.914) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Astros are 43-15 (.741) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Phillies are batting .178 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
The Phillies are batting .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 695 strikeouts in 3,902 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 315 strikeouts in 1,821 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .188 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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