Phillies vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 05, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros (105-56) are -200 favorites vs the Phillies (87-74)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (6-4), 3.90 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (16-6), 2.88 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Philadelphia Phillies (+165) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-200) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 87-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 86-75 ATS.

Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -130O 7.5 -115+165
Astros -1.5 +105U 7.5 -105-200

Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 58 away games (+20.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 56 away games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 62 away games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 away games (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 76 games at home (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)

Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aledmys Diaz 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Alex Bregman 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jake Meyers 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aledmys Diaz 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Alex Bregman 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jake Meyers 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 -145 0.5 +100

Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aledmys Diaz 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Alex Bregman 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jake Meyers 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Framber Valdez 5.5 +125 5.5 -175
  • No trends found
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.50 Units / 10% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 81-80 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -1.47% ROI).

  • 87-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -0.89% ROI
  • 81-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.2% ROI
  • 74-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -7.99% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 86-75 against the Run Line (+12 Units / 6.31% ROI).

  • 105-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.3 Units / 5.04% ROI
  • 60-91 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.8 Units / -22.01% ROI
  • 91-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.3 Units / 13.62% ROI

Bailey Falter has an average spin rate of 1915.0 RPM on fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 2228.4 — third Percentile.

Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (476/1,029) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.

Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 40% of the time (516/1,284) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (82/248) against Bailey Falter this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (369/548) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (116/171) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (633/926) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (310/454) against Framber Valdez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Phillies are 14-56 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 11-57 (.162) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 71-5 (.934) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Astros are 6-42 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Astros are 85-8 (.914) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Astros are 43-15 (.741) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Phillies are batting .178 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

The Phillies are batting .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .153.

Astros hitters have just 695 strikeouts in 3,902 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 315 strikeouts in 1,821 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros are batting .188 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.