- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi
- Watch the game on SNET
The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-105) on Tuesday, August 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 65-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 57-63 ATS.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -120 | -115 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -175 | U 8 +100 | -105 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 52.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+15.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+13.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.90 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 12 games at home (+12.70 Units / 70% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+10.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -115 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 away games (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 away games (+6.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 away games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 50 away games (+5.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 66 of their last 118 games (+5.83 Units / 4% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 95 games (+18.04 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+12.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+6.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+3.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 50-69 against the Run Line (-27.6 Units / -18.47% ROI).
- 65-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -4.02% ROI
- 47-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -19 Units / -14.58% ROI
- 60-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.75 Units / 6.76% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 57-63 against the Run Line (-7.25 Units / -4.85% ROI).
- 66-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -4.3% ROI
- 48-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.75 Units / -18.25% ROI
- 66-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.05 Units / 9.9% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (500/1,180) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,355/3,171) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (203/457) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (2,347/5,376) in non-two strike counts since the 2021 season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (113 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 80.7
50% of Yusei Kikuchi’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 92nd Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has a strikeout rate of 31% (29 SO in 93 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 88th Percentile.
65% of Yusei Kikuchi’s fastball strikeouts are located away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are 24-101 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 6-47 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies are 9-107 (.078) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Phillies are 20-11 (.645) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are 17-11 (.607) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Blue Jays are just 5-37 (.119) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Blue Jays are 11-5 (.688) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Blue Jays are 29-40 (.420) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .609 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Phillies hitters are slugging .487 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Phillies hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Phillies hitters have 80 extra-base hits out of 238 total hits (just 34%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .375 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Blue Jays hitters have just 190 strikeouts in 998 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .337 (2,251 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Blue Jays hitters have 74 extra-base hits out of 244 total hits (just 30%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 27th hardest ball in play hit (118.2 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 116.5).
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 172 of 2,529 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 3.72 (1070.2 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bo Bichette (Blue Jays): Knee, D10
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Otto Lopez (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays): Elbow, D10
- Matt Chapman (Blue Jays): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Richards (Blue Jays): Neck, D15
- Hagen Danner (Blue Jays): Oblique, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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