- The Blue Jays are -150 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
- Watch the game on SNET
The Philadelphia Phillies (+125) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-150) on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Phillies vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 65-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 58-63 ATS.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -105 | +125 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -115 | -150 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+16.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 away games (+11.10 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+13.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+11.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 47 games (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gausman | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +130 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 away games (+9.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 119 games (+6.97 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 51 away games (+6.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 away games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 away games (+5.50 Units / 16% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 96 games (+19.04 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games at home (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+7.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.95 Units / 14% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 50-70 against the Run Line (-28.6 Units / -19.02% ROI).
- 65-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -4.7% ROI
- 47-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.1 Units / -15.3% ROI
- 61-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.75 Units / 7.47% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 58-63 against the Run Line (-6.25 Units / -4.14% ROI).
- 67-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -3.69% ROI
- 48-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.85 Units / -18.93% ROI
- 67-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.05 Units / 10.57% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (164/423) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (293/922) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (164/423) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 48% (197/410) against Aaron Nola with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OBP of just .173 (342 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .161 (46 Total Bases / 286 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has thrown his fastball for a strike 77% (1,958/2,544) of the time since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has 136 three-pitch strikeouts since the 2021 season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are 24-101 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 18-102 (.150) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Phillies are 20-18 (.526) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Phillies are 20-11 (.645) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are 17-11 (.607) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Blue Jays are 64-91 (.413) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .285.
The Blue Jays are just 5-37 (.119) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Blue Jays are 30-40 (.429) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .607 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Phillies hitters have 355 strikeouts in 1,405 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .239 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Phillies hitters have 80 extra-base hits out of 239 total hits (just 34%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Blue Jays are batting .266 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Blue Jays are batting .266 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Blue Jays are batting .364 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (2,947 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Phillies pitchers have walked 264 of 3,926 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,499 times since last season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 172 of 2,538 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 22% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bo Bichette (Blue Jays): Knee, D10
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Otto Lopez (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays): Elbow, D10
- Matt Chapman (Blue Jays): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Richards (Blue Jays): Neck, D15
- Hagen Danner (Blue Jays): Oblique, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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