- The Blue Jays are -135 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler, 0.00 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on SNET
The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-135) on Sunday, March 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EST in Dunedin.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Phillies are 3-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 3-2 ATS.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -105 | +115 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -115 | -135 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 65.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Blue Jays and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+2.05 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 away games (+24.08 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 away games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.83 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 128 games (+7.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games at home (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 49 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 23.73% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 32% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 12.07% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -20% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 23.53% ROI).
- 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 61.21% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 13.39% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -23.15% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,694/3,826) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH against his fastballs since the start of the 2021 season (598 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.3 MPH on inside pitches since the start of the 2021 season (459 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 85.3
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios had an ERA of 5.23 (172.0 IP)last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.35 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .288 (199-for-692) against Jose Berrios last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — second Percentile.
Jose Berrios allowed an OBP of .340 (751 PA’s) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .276 (91-for-330) against Jose Berrios last season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — eighth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are just 4-57 (.066) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Blue Jays are 68-5 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Blue Jays are 104-88 (.542) on the road since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Blue Jays are 78-20 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Phillies batted .266 against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,323 PA’s) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Blue Jays hitters have just 1,888 strikeouts in 9,431 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Blue Jays batted .264 last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers walked 428 of 6,098 batters (7%) last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers walked 92 of 1,455 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 901 of 12,014 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Blue Jays have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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