Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 02, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (62-41) are -250 favorites vs the Phillies (55-47)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Nicholas Nelson (3-1), 3.93 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (5-3), 2.91 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSO

The Philadelphia Phillies (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Tuesday, August 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 55-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 53-50 ATS.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 +100O 8.5 -110+200
Braves -1.5 -120U 8.5 -110-250

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 42 away games (+19.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+14.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 away games (+13.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 51 games (+13.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.40 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 60 games (+19.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 63 of his last 91 games (+19.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 54 of his last 91 games (+18.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 52 of his last 89 games (+14.95 Units / 11% ROI)

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +325 0.5 -500
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +350 0.5 -600
Matt Olson 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Matt Olson 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Michael Harris 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +100 0.5 -140
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +120 0.5 -175
Matt Olson 0.5 -105 0.5 -140

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Strider 7.5 +105 7.5 -150
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 away games (+13.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+11.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 55 of their last 97 games (+10.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 away games (+2.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 77 games (+20.02 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 53 games (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 95 games (+6.50 Units / 5% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 53-49 against the Run Line (+4.25 Units / 3.44% ROI).

  • 55-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.07% ROI
  • 52-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 1.47% ROI
  • 46-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.95 Units / -9.75% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.81% ROI).

  • 62-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 1.53% ROI
  • 51-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -1.32% ROI
  • 48-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -7.27% ROI

Nick Nelson has a strike rate of just 60% (481/806) this season — tied for 11th lowest among among 214 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.

Nick Nelson has walked 14 of 108 right-handed batters (13%) this season — 12th highest among among 102 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 11th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (42/123) against Nick Nelson this season — tied for 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 91st Percentile.

Nick Nelson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 33.2 innings he’s appeared — Max Fried has the longest active streak at 60.0.

Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .128 (18-for-141) against Spencer Strider on the road this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.

64% of Spencer Strider’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 37% (120 SO in 323 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 40% (86 SO in 213 PAs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Phillies are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 11-35 (.239) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Phillies are 29-22 (.569) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 42-5 (.894) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Braves are 27-3 (.900) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Braves are 36-21 (.632) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Braves are 26-6 (.812) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

Phillies hitters have just 25 strikeouts in 147 PA’s (17%) against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Phillies hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 380 of their 1,568 plate appearances (24%) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Phillies have a winning percentage of 57% on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Braves hitters have 232 extra-base hits out of 561 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .497 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters are slugging .687 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .562.

Braves hitters are slugging .530 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .450.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH since the start of last season (6,405 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 22% of the time after an opposing score this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .218.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.