Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 6

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Atlanta Braves' Austin Riley in action during Game 4 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
(AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 06, 2024, 11:00 AM
  • The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Braves
  • Phillies vs Braves Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Phillies / Braves TV Channel: FOX

The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-115) on Saturday, July 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Phillies are 58-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 39-47 ATS.

Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 10-2, 2.30 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 1-4, 5.63 ERA

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +155O 8 +100-105
Braves +1.5 -190U 8 -120-115

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 73 games (+23.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 71 games (+22.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 70 games (+20.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 72 games (+16.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 71 games (+14.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 72 games (+26.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+10.14 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+1.20 Units / 5% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 48-40 against the Run Line (+7.65 Units / 7.18% ROI).

  • 58-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.9 Units / 8.82% ROI
  • 40-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.65 Units / -7.87% ROI
  • 43-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -1.24% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 39-47 against the Run Line (-8.2 Units / -8.31% ROI).

  • 47-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.2 Units / -10.29% ROI
  • 30-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.4 Units / -28.16% ROI
  • 52-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.95 Units / 19.83% ROI

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Duvall (ATL) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Trea Turner (PHI) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 0.5 +525 0.5 -750

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 -250 0.5 +195
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 -225 0.5 +175
Matt Olson (ATL) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Adam Duvall (ATL) 0.5 -200 0.5 +155

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Trea Turner (PHI) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Alec Bohm (PHI) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Adam Duvall (ATL) 0.5 +155 0.5 -210

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ranger Suarez (PHI) 4.5 -135 4.5 +105
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) 4.5 -120 4.5 -110

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (224/369) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed an OPS of just .361 (210 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .487 — 94th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .252 (36 Total Bases / 143 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .347 — 95th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .327 (124 Total Bases / 379 ABs) this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 89th Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Spencer Schwellenbach has limited playing time.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 9-18 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.

The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 10-2 (.833) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.

The Phillies are 4-23 (.148) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .429.

The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.

The Braves are 34-67 (.337) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.

The Braves are 65-46 (.586) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.

Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 100% of their games (90.3% ROI) when slight moneyline underdogs (+101 to +149) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .441 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.

The Phillies are batting .254 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

The Phillies have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Braves hitters have an OBP of .379 (1,151 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .790 (7,107 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Braves are batting .313 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.

Braves hitters are slugging .461 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.

Phillies pitchers have walked 17 of 456 batters (4%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .145 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.4 MPH this season (2,005 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9

Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.4 MPH (2,005 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.

Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
  • Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
  • Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
  • Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
  • Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
  • Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
  • Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
  • Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
  • Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.