- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Braves TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (+135) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-160) on Sunday, June 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta, GA, GA.
This season, the Phillies are 48-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 35-46 ATS.
Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 6-2, 2.08 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider 3-5, 4.14 ERA
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -170 | O 8.5 -115 | +135 |
| Braves | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -105 | -160 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+15.10 Units / 168% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.40 Units / 76% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 65 games (+13.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 39 away games (+12.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.63 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.35 Units / 44% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 55 games (+15.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 88% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 41-41 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -3.01% ROI).
- 48-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 1.93% ROI
- 35-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.25 Units / -15.62% ROI
- 45-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.7 Units / 7.33% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 35-46 against the Run Line (-11.47 Units / -12% ROI).
- 38-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.38 Units / -19.82% ROI
- 32-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -19.28% ROI
- 45-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 11.02% ROI
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider (ATL) | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -125 |
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitless in 16 AB’s against Ranger Suarez when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 31% (44/141) against Ranger Suarez on pitches in the strike zone this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (50/179) against Ranger Suarez this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Right handed batters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (44/157) against Ranger Suarez this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 39% (635/1,644) against Spencer Strider in 2023 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 42% (332/783) against Spencer Strider in 2023 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (779/2,068) against Spencer Strider since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 35% (346 SO in 979 PAs) since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 9-23 (.281) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Phillies are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 22-3 (.880) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies are just 4-10 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are just 10-52 (.161) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Braves are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Braves are just 11-40 (.216) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Braves are just 10-67 (.130) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .408 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Phillies hitters are slugging just .332 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .350 (1,502 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 38% of the time over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 41% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 39% of the time this month (25 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this month (25 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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