Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 25, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies are -110 favorites vs the Braves
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
  • Braves starting pitcher: Dylan Dodd
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-110) on Thursday, May 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Phillies are 23-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 20-29 ATS.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +145O 9.5 -120-110
Braves +1.5 -175U 9.5 +100-110

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+13.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+12.95 Units / 31% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+12.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.95 Units / 34% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.80 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 40% ROI)

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Kevin Pillar 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Matt Olson 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Kevin Pillar 0.5 -155 0.5 +120
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Matt Olson 0.5 -210 0.5 +160

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 +140 0.5 -190
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
Kevin Pillar 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Matt Olson 0.5 +135 0.5 -175

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 5.5 -120 5.5 -110
Dylan Dodd 3.5 -160 3.5 +125
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 49 games (+12.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+3.70 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 32% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 19-30 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -27.23% ROI).

  • 23-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -16.06% ROI
  • 21-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -11.46% ROI
  • 25-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 4.06% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 20-29 against the Run Line (-8.2 Units / -14.55% ROI).

  • 30-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 4.87% ROI
  • 29-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.45 Units / 15.82% ROI
  • 19-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -24.24% ROI

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (61/176) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 94th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .150 (3-for-20) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — 92nd Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 41% (9/22) against Aaron Nola on changeups this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 42 of 1,056 batters (4%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are just 1-15 (.062) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Phillies are 20-79 (.202) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Phillies are just 17-3 (.850) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.

The Phillies are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-4 (.733) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .474.

The Braves are 9-8 (.529) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Braves are 27-21 (.562) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.

The Braves are 14-5 (.737) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

28% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,264 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Braves hitters are slugging .569 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.

Braves hitters are slugging .475 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .938 (537 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .747.

The Braves have scored first in 76% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 17 double plays in 329 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 127 of 1,860 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (209.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.93 (205.2 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.

Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
  • José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
  • Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.