- The Braves are -130 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Philadelphia Phillies (+110) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-130) on Saturday, May 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 24-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 21-30 ATS.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -120 | +110 |
| Braves | -1.5 +150 | U 9 +100 | -130 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 65.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+14.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+12.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+12.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 37 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+11.35 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.65 Units / 65% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+11.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 34 games (+4.80 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 51 games (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+13.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 51 games (+3.20 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 55% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 20-31 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -26.22% ROI).
- 24-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.8 Units / -15.3% ROI
- 22-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -9.23% ROI
- 25-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 1.77% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 21-30 against the Run Line (-8.2 Units / -13.89% ROI).
- 31-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 4.08% ROI
- 30-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.45 Units / 17.01% ROI
- 19-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.4 Units / -25.4% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (109/245) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (109/245) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (128 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Opponents are hitting .480 (12-for-25) against Zack Wheeler on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .348 — fifth Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 50% of the time (232/461) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (86/197) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (270/625) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 97th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (952/2,664) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are just 7-15 (.318) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 15-79 (.160) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Phillies are 14-14 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Phillies are just 2-16 (.111) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 28-21 (.571) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Braves are 14-5 (.737) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 10-8 (.556) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Braves are 14-5 (.737) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .292 (647 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Phillies hitters have drawn 37 walks in 647 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .261 (331 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .576 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Braves hitters are slugging .477 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .947 (549 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Braves have scored first in 83% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 18 double plays in 345 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.69 (226.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 448 times this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Michael Tonkin (Braves): Neck, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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