- The Braves are -250 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Dylan Covey
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Watch the game on ESPN2
The Philadelphia Phillies (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Sunday, May 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).
The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 25-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 21-31 ATS.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 +105 | O 9 -115 | +200 |
| Braves | -1.5 -130 | U 9 -105 | -250 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 87.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+15.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+13.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 38 games (+13.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+10.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 49 games (+10.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 -155 | 8.5 +120 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 35 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 52 games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 52 games (+1.95 Units / 2% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 21-31 against the Run Line (-16.4 Units / -24.06% ROI).
- 25-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -13.62% ROI
- 22-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -11.06% ROI
- 26-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 3.48% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 21-31 against the Run Line (-9.2 Units / -15.32% ROI).
- 31-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 2.45% ROI
- 30-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.3 Units / 14.64% ROI
- 20-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.4 Units / -23.2% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (12/71) against Dylan Covey over the last 14 days (2 games) — 6th lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 28% — fifth Percentile.
Dylan Covey has struck out 41% (7/17) of right-handed batters he faced — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Dylan Covey has not walked any of the 22 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (2 games) — tied for best among in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Covey has struck out just 9% (2/22) of left-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (2 games) — 9th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 10th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has struck out 43% (53/122) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 45% (114/253) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 41% (97 SO in 234 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 46% (133/290) against Spencer Strider in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are just 7-15 (.318) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 19-3 (.864) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Phillies are just 96-7 (.932) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Phillies are 3-25 (.107) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 14-5 (.737) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 28-21 (.571) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Braves are 10-8 (.556) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Braves are 11-4 (.733) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .518 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
27% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .291 (650 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .576 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .947 (549 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Braves have scored first in 73% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves hitters are slugging .477 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 19 double plays in 345 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Phillies have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 127 of 1,886 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves have won just 0% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Michael Tonkin (Braves): Neck, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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