Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The (2-1) are favorites vs the (2-1)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (-), ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Philadelphia Phillies () visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves () on Tuesday, October 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Atlanta.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 89-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 83-79 ATS.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies O
Braves U

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 48 away games (+20.95 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 48 away games (+15.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 80 games (+13.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+12.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+11.55 Units / 82% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 79 of his last 111 games (+22.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 58 games at home (+17.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 70 games (+14.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 84 of his last 150 games (+14.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+13.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Matt Olson 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Michael Harris 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Orlando Arcia 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Matt Olson 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Michael Harris 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Orlando Arcia 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Matt Olson 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Michael Harris 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Orlando Arcia 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Fried 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
Ranger Suarez 3.5 -140 3.5 -105
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 54 away games (+23.28 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 114 games (+12.00 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 away games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 113 games (+8.00 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 136 games (+27.92 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 78 of their last 112 games (+25.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+11.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games at home (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 84-80 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 0.3% ROI).

  • 89-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -0.46% ROI
  • 82-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -0.83% ROI
  • 76-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.1 Units / -7.29% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 83-79 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -2.7% ROI).

  • 101-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.85 Units / 4.67% ROI
  • 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -0.97% ROI
  • 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -7.84% ROI

Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (655/1,217) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.188 (19 Total Bases / 16 ABs) this month (1 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .378 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (98/156) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .347 (41 Total Bases / 118 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .578 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .189 (25 Total Bases / 132 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (180 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .186 (64 Total Bases / 345 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.2 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (201 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 49-12 (.803) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 90-22 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Phillies hitters are slugging .535 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 34 total hits (56%) against RHP this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Phillies are batting .177 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,779 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Braves hitters are slugging .442 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters are slugging .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.

Braves hitters are slugging .307 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .257 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,922 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,874 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have an ERA of 3.11 (741.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.

Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.