- The – (2-1) are favorites vs the – (2-1)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (-), – ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies () visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves () on Tuesday, October 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Atlanta.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 89-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 83-79 ATS.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | O | ||
| Braves | U |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 48 away games (+20.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 48 away games (+15.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 80 games (+13.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+12.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+11.55 Units / 82% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 79 of his last 111 games (+22.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 58 games at home (+17.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 70 games (+14.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 84 of his last 150 games (+14.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+13.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
| Ranger Suarez | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 54 away games (+23.28 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 114 games (+12.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 away games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 113 games (+8.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 45% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 136 games (+27.92 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 78 of their last 112 games (+25.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+11.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games at home (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 84-80 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 0.3% ROI).
- 89-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -0.46% ROI
- 82-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -0.83% ROI
- 76-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.1 Units / -7.29% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 83-79 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -2.7% ROI).
- 101-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.85 Units / 4.67% ROI
- 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -0.97% ROI
- 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -7.84% ROI
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (655/1,217) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.188 (19 Total Bases / 16 ABs) this month (1 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .378 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (98/156) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .347 (41 Total Bases / 118 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .578 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .189 (25 Total Bases / 132 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (180 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .186 (64 Total Bases / 345 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.2 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (201 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 49-12 (.803) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 90-22 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .535 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 34 total hits (56%) against RHP this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Phillies are batting .177 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,779 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .442 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters are slugging .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Braves hitters are slugging .307 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .257 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,922 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,874 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 3.11 (741.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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