Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 12, NLDS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 12, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Phillies
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (0-0), 0.00 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Philadelphia Phillies (+120) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Wednesday, October 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:35pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 90-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 83-80 ATS.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -185O 7.5 -120+120
Braves -1.5 +150U 7.5 +100-145

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 49 away games (+19.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 48 of his last 81 games (+14.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 49 away games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.10 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 38 of his last 76 games (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 79 of his last 112 games (+20.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 28 games (+16.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 85 of his last 151 games (+15.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 71 games (+12.70 Units / 12% ROI)

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Matt Olson 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Michael Harris 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Matt Olson 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Michael Harris 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
Matt Olson 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Michael Harris 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Wright 3.5 -165 3.5 +120
Zack Wheeler 5.5 +105 5.5 -145
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 137 games (+26.67 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 78 of their last 113 games (+23.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 58 games (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+10.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 85-80 against the Run Line (+1.6 Units / 0.79% ROI).

  • 90-75 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 0.25% ROI
  • 83-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.27% ROI
  • 76-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.15 Units / -7.83% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 83-80 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -3.17% ROI).

  • 101-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.85 Units / 3.91% ROI
  • 81-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -0.41% ROI
  • 74-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.95 Units / -8.38% ROI

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,718/3,886) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (192 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.2 MPH against his fastballs since the start of last season (610 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.3

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (436/1,007) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (149/240) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (275/501) against Kyle Wright this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.

Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 26 double plays in 145 opportunities (18%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (108/188) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 95th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Braves are 90-22 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies hitters are slugging .535 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

The Phillies are batting .264 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,779 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .837 (1,216 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

Braves hitters are slugging .444 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Braves hitters are slugging .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.

Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,922 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,874 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).

Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.