Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 16

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 16, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (88-55) are -200 favorites vs the Phillies (80-63)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (9-5), 3.61 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (13-6), 2.49 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Philadelphia Phillies (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Friday, September 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are ATS.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -125O 8 -115+165
Braves -1.5 +105U 8 -105-200

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Friday‘s matchup with confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 54 away games (+15.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 away games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 59 away games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 60 games (+10.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 48 away games (+10.90 Units / 15% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 69 of his last 93 games (+25.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 37 of his last 52 games (+21.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 75 of his last 131 games (+17.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 49 games at home (+16.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 87 of his last 131 games (+13.70 Units / 6% ROI)

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Matt Olson 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Michael Harris 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Robbie Grossman 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Matt Olson 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Michael Harris 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Robbie Grossman 0.5 -135 0.5 -105

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Matt Olson 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Michael Harris 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Robbie Grossman 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 80 of their last 138 games (+19.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 56 away games (+9.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 away games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.30 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 74 of their last 117 games (+23.42 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 66 games at home (+7.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (20/152) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (393/677) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season is 386.8 feet — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 399.1

Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1904.4 RPM on fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 2230.2 — first Percentile.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.0 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (165 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .162 (327 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 98th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .430 (137 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .699 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has walked 28 of 670 batters (4%) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 94th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 11-48 (.186) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 14-48 (.226) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .117.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 36-11 (.766) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 43-10 (.811) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Braves are 49-11 (.817) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Braves are 33-4 (.892) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Phillies hitters are slugging .498 against RHP this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Phillies hitters are slugging .490 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .765 (2,746 PA’s) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Phillies are batting .176 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Braves hitters are slugging .659 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.

Braves hitters are slugging .440 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Braves hitters are slugging .440 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Braves hitters are slugging .302 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.

Phillies pitchers have walked 173 of 2,694 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH (3,456 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,611 times since the start of last season — 4th fewest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Braves pitchers this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 54% with two-strikes this month (12 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.