Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (90-55) are -250 favorites vs the Phillies (80-65)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (5-3), 3.80 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (10-5), 2.72 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Philadelphia Phillies (+190) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Sunday, September 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are ATS.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -105O 8 -110+190
Braves -1.5 -115U 8 -110-250

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 54 away games (+15.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 away games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 61 away games (+11.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 48 away games (+10.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 70 of his last 95 games (+24.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 38 of his last 54 games (+20.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 51 games at home (+18.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 76 of his last 133 games (+16.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+16.10 Units / 95% ROI)

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Matt Olson 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Robbie Grossman 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Matt Olson 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Robbie Grossman 0.5 -130 0.5 -110

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Matt Olson 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Robbie Grossman 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Strider 7.5 -140 7.5 +100
Bailey Falter 4.5 +120 4.5 -165
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 81 of their last 140 games (+19.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 away games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 119 games (+23.07 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+6.95 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (8/33) against Bailey Falter — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.

Bailey Falter has not walked any of the 45 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Bailey Falter has not allowed a walk in any of his last four starts — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 6.

Bailey Falter has not allowed a walk in his last 89 PAs against a RHH dating back to August 20th — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 174.

Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Spencer Strider has struck out 44% (107/243) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 38% (192 SO in 505 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has struck out 53% (20/38) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 41% (220/535) against Spencer Strider this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 14-49 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Phillies are 11-49 (.183) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 65-21 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 33-4 (.892) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Braves are 41-30 (.577) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Braves are 49-25 (.662) at home this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .782 (1,622 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.

The Phillies are batting .268 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Braves hitters are slugging .627 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters are slugging .487 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .385.

Braves hitters have 1,002 strikeouts in 3,965 PA’s (25%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 176 of 2,710 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.