- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Braves
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright
- Watch the game on BSSO
The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-105) on Monday, September 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 81-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 76-73 ATS.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -115 | -115 |
| Braves | +1.5 -165 | U 9.5 -105 | -105 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+16.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+15.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+13.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 38 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 34 games (+18.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+18.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games at home (+11.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Kyle Wright | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 92 games (+7.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 44 games (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 43% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 140 games (+17.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+15.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+9.49 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 92 games (+9.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.14 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 65-84 against the Run Line (-26.1 Units / -14.22% ROI).
- 81-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -3.86% ROI
- 66-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -7.26% ROI
- 71-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -0.94% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 76-73 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.29% ROI).
- 96-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 2.67% ROI
- 83-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.55 Units / 8.23% ROI
- 63-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -28.05 Units / -17.18% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (572/1,327) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (825/1,947) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (311/719) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 95th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed a slugging percentage of just .256 (20 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Wright has allowed three-ball counts to 3% of batters they faced (14/438 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (128/218) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (316/574) against Kyle Wright since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (1,125/3,124) since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 96th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 7-60 (.104) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 99-69 (.589) after a win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Phillies are 34-14 (.708) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Phillies are 47-32 (.595) after a road win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 26-42 (.382) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Braves are 45-38 (.542) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 160-33 (.829) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Braves are 21-28 (.429) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .455 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Phillies hitters are slugging .506 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .776 (3,492 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .531 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Braves are batting .324 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters are slugging .621 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .456.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .884 (1,268 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 281 of 4,176 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 26th hardest ball in play hit (118.6 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.0).
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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