Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (90-55) are -250 favorites vs the Phillies (80-65)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (5-3), 3.80 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (10-5), 2.72 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Philadelphia Phillies (+190) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Sunday, September 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are ATS.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -105O 8 -110+190
Braves -1.5 -115U 8 -110-250

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 54 away games (+15.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 away games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 61 away games (+11.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 48 away games (+10.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 70 of his last 95 games (+24.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 38 of his last 54 games (+20.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 51 games at home (+18.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 76 of his last 133 games (+16.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+16.10 Units / 95% ROI)

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Matt Olson 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Robbie Grossman 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Matt Olson 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Robbie Grossman 0.5 -130 0.5 -110

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Matt Olson 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Robbie Grossman 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Strider 7.5 -140 7.5 +100
Bailey Falter 4.5 +120 4.5 -165
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 81 of their last 140 games (+19.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 away games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 119 games (+23.07 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+6.95 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (8/33) against Bailey Falter — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.

Bailey Falter has not walked any of the 45 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Bailey Falter has not allowed a walk in any of his last four starts — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 6.

Bailey Falter has not allowed a walk in his last 89 PAs against a RHH dating back to August 20th — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 174.

Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Spencer Strider has struck out 44% (107/243) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 38% (192 SO in 505 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has struck out 53% (20/38) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 41% (220/535) against Spencer Strider this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 14-49 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Phillies are 11-49 (.183) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 65-21 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 33-4 (.892) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Braves are 41-30 (.577) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Braves are 49-25 (.662) at home this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .782 (1,622 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.

The Phillies are batting .268 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Braves hitters are slugging .627 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters are slugging .487 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .385.

Braves hitters have 1,002 strikeouts in 3,965 PA’s (25%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 176 of 2,710 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.