- The Braves (90-55) are -250 favorites vs the Phillies (80-65)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (5-3), 3.80 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (10-5), 2.72 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (+190) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Sunday, September 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are ATS.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -105 | O 8 -110 | +190 |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | U 8 -110 | -250 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 54 away games (+15.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 away games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 61 away games (+11.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 48 away games (+10.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 70 of his last 95 games (+24.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 38 of his last 54 games (+20.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 51 games at home (+18.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 76 of his last 133 games (+16.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+16.10 Units / 95% ROI)
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 7.5 -140 | 7.5 +100 |
| Bailey Falter | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 81 of their last 140 games (+19.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 away games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.10 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 119 games (+23.07 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+6.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (8/33) against Bailey Falter — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Bailey Falter has not walked any of the 45 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has not allowed a walk in any of his last four starts — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 6.
Bailey Falter has not allowed a walk in his last 89 PAs against a RHH dating back to August 20th — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 174.
Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has struck out 44% (107/243) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 38% (192 SO in 505 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has struck out 53% (20/38) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 41% (220/535) against Spencer Strider this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 14-49 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies are 11-49 (.183) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 65-21 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 33-4 (.892) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Braves are 41-30 (.577) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Braves are 49-25 (.662) at home this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .782 (1,622 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
The Phillies are batting .268 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters are slugging .627 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters are slugging .487 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Braves hitters have 1,002 strikeouts in 3,965 PA’s (25%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 176 of 2,710 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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