Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 18

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Braves
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright
  • Watch the game on BSSO

The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-105) on Monday, September 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Phillies are 81-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 76-73 ATS.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +140O 9.5 -115-115
Braves +1.5 -165U 9.5 -105-105

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+16.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+15.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+13.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.70 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 38 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 34 games (+18.20 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+18.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games at home (+11.85 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nicky Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)

Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Bryce Harper 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Matt Olson 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Sean Murphy 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Bryce Harper 1.5 +195 1.5 -275
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Matt Olson 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Sean Murphy 0.5 -165 0.5 +125

Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +210 0.5 -275
Bryce Harper 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Matt Olson 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Sean Murphy 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zack Wheeler 5.5 -155 5.5 +115
Kyle Wright 3.5 -155 3.5 +120
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 92 games (+7.60 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.65 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 44 games (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 140 games (+17.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+15.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+9.49 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 92 games (+9.25 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.14 Units / 17% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 65-84 against the Run Line (-26.1 Units / -14.22% ROI).

  • 81-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -3.86% ROI
  • 66-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -7.26% ROI
  • 71-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -0.94% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 76-73 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.29% ROI).

  • 96-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 2.67% ROI
  • 83-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.55 Units / 8.23% ROI
  • 63-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -28.05 Units / -17.18% ROI

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (572/1,327) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (825/1,947) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (311/719) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 95th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed a slugging percentage of just .256 (20 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 — 100th Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Wright has allowed three-ball counts to 3% of batters they faced (14/438 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (128/218) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (316/574) against Kyle Wright since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Kyle Wright has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (1,125/3,124) since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 96th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 7-60 (.104) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Phillies are 99-69 (.589) after a win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Phillies are 34-14 (.708) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .610.

The Phillies are 47-32 (.595) after a road win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 26-42 (.382) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

The Braves are 45-38 (.542) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.

The Braves are 160-33 (.829) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Braves are 21-28 (.429) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.

Phillies hitters are slugging .455 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.

Phillies hitters are slugging .506 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .451.

The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .776 (3,492 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Braves hitters are slugging .531 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.

The Braves are batting .324 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.

Braves hitters are slugging .621 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .456.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .884 (1,268 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 281 of 4,176 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 26th hardest ball in play hit (118.6 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.0).

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D60
  • Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60

Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.