- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Watch the game on TBS
The Philadelphia Phillies (+185) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Phillies vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 82-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 76-74 ATS.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -105 | O 9 -115 | +185 |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | U 9 -105 | -225 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 79.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 38 games (+17.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+17.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+12.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.95 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+19.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+19.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 -150 | 8.5 +115 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -115 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 93 games (+8.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 45 games (+7.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 41 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 141 games (+16.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 93 games (+8.15 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+8.07 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+8.04 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 66-84 against the Run Line (-24.7 Units / -13.38% ROI).
- 82-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.15 Units / -3.37% ROI
- 66-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -7.88% ROI
- 72-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -0.33% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 76-74 against the Run Line (-2.1 Units / -1.19% ROI).
- 96-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 2.24% ROI
- 83-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.45 Units / 7.51% ROI
- 64-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -27.05 Units / -16.45% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 71% (48/68) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (79/240) against Cristopher Sanchez on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has walked 9 of 284 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (25-for-150) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 96th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 48% (128/264) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (591/1,494) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 38% (259 SO in 688 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has 62 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 7-60 (.104) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Phillies are 47-32 (.595) after a road win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Phillies are 19-113 (.144) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Phillies are 27-111 (.196) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 45-39 (.536) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 26-43 (.377) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Braves are 19-8 (.704) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 36-18 (.667) after a home loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .774 (3,511 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Phillies are batting .259 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Phillies are batting .256 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Phillies hitters are slugging .431 since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 189 of 2,768 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 281 of 4,193 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 7.33 (124.0 IP) over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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