- The Phillies (25-29) are -105 favorites vs the Brewers (33-23)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (4-3), 4.68 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Jason Alexander (0-0), 2.57 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Tuesday, June 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Phillies vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 25-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 24-32 ATS.
Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -105 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -115 | -115 |
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 72.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 18 away games (+7.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 away games (+7.80 Units / 54% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+4.50 Units / 75% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 16 away games (+11.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+2.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+4.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+4.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 games (+3.60 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+3.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+1.50 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 26-28 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -4.46% ROI).
- 25-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -12.79% ROI
- 31-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.95 Units / 13.28% ROI
- 21-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -21.57% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 24-32 against the Run Line (-8.8 Units / -13.41% ROI).
- 33-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.39% ROI
- 26-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -5.36% ROI
- 27-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.98% ROI
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (79/424) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1876.8 RPM on fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 2213.7 — first Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .408 (109 Total Bases / 267 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .562 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of just .162 (68/420) against Ranger Suarez on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 98th Percentile.
Jason Alexander: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (17/22) against Jason Alexander — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Jason Alexander had a first-pitch strike rate of 86% (24/28) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
The hardest ball hit off of Jason Alexander was 115.1 MPH — 2nd hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.3
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 18% (8/45) against Jason Alexander — tied for 4th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — fifth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 4-22 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Phillies are just 25-27 (.481) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Phillies are 4-21 (.160) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Phillies are just 10-14 (.417) on the road this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 14-2 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .672.
The Brewers are 3-18 (.143) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Brewers are 18-14 (.562) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Brewers are 11-95 (.104) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .433 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .381.
Phillies hitters have put just 30% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .677 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .557.
Phillies hitters have 622 strikeouts in 2,568 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging .420 against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .262 at home over the last 14 days (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Brewers are batting just .224 at home since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have been successful in 72% of their bunt for hit attempts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .251 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Willy Adames (Brewers): Ankle, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Omar Narváez (Brewers): COVID-19, D10
- Luis Urías (Brewers): Thumb, Day-to-Day
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D15
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hamstring, D60
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