Phillies vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 7

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 07, 2022, 10:44 AM
  • The Phillies (25-29) are -105 favorites vs the Brewers (33-23)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (4-3), 4.68 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Jason Alexander (0-0), 2.57 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Tuesday, June 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Phillies vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 25-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 24-32 ATS.

Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +150O 8.5 -105-105
Brewers +1.5 -185U 8.5 -115-115

Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 72.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 18 away games (+7.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 away games (+7.80 Units / 54% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+4.50 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 16 away games (+11.80 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+2.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+4.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+4.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 games (+3.60 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+3.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+1.50 Units / 6% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 26-28 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -4.46% ROI).

  • 25-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -12.79% ROI
  • 31-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.95 Units / 13.28% ROI
  • 21-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -21.57% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 24-32 against the Run Line (-8.8 Units / -13.41% ROI).

  • 33-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.39% ROI
  • 26-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -5.36% ROI
  • 27-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.98% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (79/424) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1876.8 RPM on fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 2213.7 — first Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .408 (109 Total Bases / 267 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .562 — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of just .162 (68/420) against Ranger Suarez on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 98th Percentile.

Jason Alexander: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (17/22) against Jason Alexander — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Jason Alexander had a first-pitch strike rate of 86% (24/28) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.

The hardest ball hit off of Jason Alexander was 115.1 MPH — 2nd hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.3

Opponents had a chase percentage of just 18% (8/45) against Jason Alexander — tied for 4th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — fifth Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Phillies are 4-22 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Phillies are just 25-27 (.481) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Phillies are 4-21 (.160) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Phillies are just 10-14 (.417) on the road this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Brewers are 14-2 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

The Brewers are 3-18 (.143) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Brewers are 18-14 (.562) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.

The Brewers are 11-95 (.104) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

Phillies hitters are slugging .433 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .381.

Phillies hitters have put just 30% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .677 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .557.

Phillies hitters have 622 strikeouts in 2,568 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers hitters are slugging .420 against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .388.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .262 at home over the last 14 days (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.

The Brewers are batting just .224 at home since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters have been successful in 72% of their bunt for hit attempts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .251 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Brewers pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Willy Adames (Brewers): Ankle, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Omar Narváez (Brewers): COVID-19, D10
  • Luis Urías (Brewers): Thumb, Day-to-Day
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
  • Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D15
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D10
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hamstring, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.