- The Phillies (26-29) are -135 favorites vs the Brewers (33-24)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (3-4), 3.915 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser (3-5), 3.506 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Philadelphia Phillies (-135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+115) on Wednesday, June 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Phillies vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 26-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 24-33 ATS.
Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -105 | -135 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -150 | U 8 -115 | +115 |
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 68.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+11.25 Units / 63% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+9.40 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 19 away games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+8.55 Units / 66% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 80% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 17 away games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.45 Units / 73% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+3.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+2.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 53 games (+2.40 Units / 3% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 27-28 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -2.86% ROI).
- 26-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.1 Units / -11.23% ROI
- 31-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 11.15% ROI
- 22-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -19.53% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 24-33 against the Run Line (-9.8 Units / -14.71% ROI).
- 33-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -1.72% ROI
- 26-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 28-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.64% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has allowed a .489 SLG vs right-handed batters (sixth worst)– eighth Percentile and just .289 vs left-handed batters this season (10th best among qualified SPs)– 83rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .042 (1-for-24) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .275 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 33% (12 SO in 36 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .167 (19-for-114) against Aaron Nola this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 96th Percentile.
Adrian Houser: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has walked 11 of 122 right-handed batters (9%) this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 11th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has walked 23 of 225 batters (10%) this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 12th Percentile.
71% of Adrian Houser’s non-fastball strikeouts are located away this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 96th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has allowed an OPS of just .696 (43 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.011 — 94th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Phillies are just 19-3 (.864) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Phillies are just 11-14 (.440) on the road this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Phillies are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 3-18 (.143) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Brewers are just 28-3 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Brewers are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Brewers are 14-3 (.824) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have put just 31% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .436 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .761 (976 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Phillies hitters are slugging .512 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .438.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .636 (643 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .277 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 31 of 506 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Willy Adames (Brewers): Ankle, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Kolten Wong (Brewers): Right Calf, Day-to-Day
- Omar Narváez (Brewers): COVID-19, D10
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D15
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hamstring, D60
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