Phillies vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 09, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Brewers (33-25) are -175 favorites vs the Phillies (27-29)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin (2-4), 3.882 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (3-3), 2.502 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Philadelphia Phillies (+145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-175) on Thursday, June 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Phillies vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 27-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 24-34 ATS.

Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -145O 7.5 -120+145
Brewers -1.5 +120U 7.5 +100-175

Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 63.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+12.75 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 away games (+8.20 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 away games (+8.15 Units / 50% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.55 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Kolten Wong has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+3.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 18 away games (+11.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 26 away games (+11.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+6.80 Units / 111% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+4.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+1.60 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games (+1.40 Units / 2% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 28-28 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.87% ROI).

  • 27-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -9.67% ROI
  • 32-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.8 Units / 12.57% ROI
  • 22-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -21.04% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 24-34 against the Run Line (-11.35 Units / -16.65% ROI).

  • 33-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -2.79% ROI
  • 27-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -5.41% ROI
  • 28-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -1.19% ROI

Zach Eflin has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.5 MPH this season (150 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents are hitting .538 (14-for-26) against Zach Eflin on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .329 — first Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .367 (22-for-60) against Zach Eflin this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.

Zach Eflin has walked 26 of 650 batters (4%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 65% of the time (56/86) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 44% (37/84) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 71% of the time (354/497) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (192/512) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Phillies are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .073.

The Phillies are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Phillies are just 20-3 (.870) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.

The Phillies are 16-102 (.136) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .123.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Brewers are 3-19 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .073.

The Brewers are 10-2 (.833) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Brewers are just 3-12 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.

The Brewers are 22-3 (.880) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

Phillies hitters have 628 strikeouts in 2,585 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .777 (1,017 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.

Phillies hitters have 162 strikeouts in 652 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies hitters have put just 30% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Brewers are batting just .211 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .636 (643 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .291 (643 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .281 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .212.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Groin, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Kolten Wong (Brewers): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Omar Narváez (Brewers): COVID-19, D10
  • Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D15
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D10
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.