- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Brewers
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-105) on Friday, September 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 74-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 62-71 ATS.
Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -105 | -115 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -115 | -105 |
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 57.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 37 of his last 45 games (+20.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 away games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 50 games (+10.95 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+15.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+13.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+11.45 Units / 93% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 48 games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.55 Units / 136% ROI)
Brewers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Brewers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -155 |
| Zack Wheeler | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 away games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+6.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 33 away games (+3.10 Units / 8% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.33 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.28 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 58-75 against the Run Line (-24.6 Units / -14.92% ROI).
- 74-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -2.99% ROI
- 56-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.45 Units / -10.62% ROI
- 65-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 2.45% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 62-71 against the Run Line (-12.45 Units / -7.48% ROI).
- 74-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 4.9% ROI
- 58-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.5 Units / -12.65% ROI
- 69-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 3.78% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (224/508) when behind in the count this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .201 (59-for-294) against Zack Wheeler this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .188 (13-for-69) against Zack Wheeler on low fastballs this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — 96th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (1,432/3,373) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .214 (12-for-56) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (390/1,126) against Freddy Peralta this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 38% (206/542) against Freddy Peralta this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has struck out 36% (97/271) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 7-51 (.121) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 17-9 (.654) after a home loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Phillies are 10-111 (.083) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Phillies are 11-6 (.647) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .435.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 16-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Brewers are 16-35 (.314) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Brewers are 14-7 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 18-9 (.667) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.220 (155 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .777 (3,310 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Phillies hitters are slugging .566 against RHP over the last 30 days (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Phillies hitters are slugging .241 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .232 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .355 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Brewers are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .662 (2,578 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 379 of 4,972 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,270 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% against Brewers pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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