- The Phillies are -145 favorites vs the Brewers
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea
- Watch the game on FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies (-145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+120) on Saturday, September 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Phillies vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 0-0 ATS.
Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +110 | O 9 +100 | -145 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -135 | U 9 -120 | +120 |
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 64.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Brewers and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 38 of his last 46 games (+21.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 away games (+13.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+11.30 Units / 126% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Earned Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.50 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+16.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+14.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+13.20 Units / 99% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 49 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Brewers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Brewers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -200 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Brewers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 away games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+6.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 33 away games (+3.10 Units / 8% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.33 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.28 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (184/483) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (313/982) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .263 (372 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 87th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has located his pitches away 54% of the time (1,405/2,625) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of 1.141 (87 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .740 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (31/163) against Colin Rea with runners in scoring position this season — 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Colin Rea has a first-pitch strike rate of 67% (284/423) this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 90th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 54% (83/155) against Colin Rea this season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 90th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 7-52 (.119) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 26-105 (.198) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Phillies are 10-112 (.082) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Phillies are 20-18 (.526) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 16-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Brewers are 19-9 (.679) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Brewers are 17-35 (.327) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Brewers are 41-25 (.621) after a home loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.220 (155 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
The Phillies are batting .264 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies hitters are slugging .606 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .777 (3,313 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .231 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .355 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Brewers are batting just .232 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 382 of 5,007 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 50% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 176 of 2,625 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Brewers pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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