- The – are favorites vs the –
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley
- Watch the game on Peacock
The Philadelphia Phillies () visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers () on Sunday, September 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Phillies vs Brewers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 74-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 64-71 ATS.
Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | O | ||
| Brewers | U |
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 64.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Brewers and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 38 of his last 47 games (+19.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+14.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+12.85 Units / 128% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Earned Runs Over in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.50 Units / 58% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+17.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+14.50 Units / 101% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Sal Frelick has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.15 Units / 83% ROI)
Brewers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Brewers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Brewers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 30 games (+5.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 away games (+4.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.72 Units / 23% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+10.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.33 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.28 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 58-77 against the Run Line (-26.6 Units / -15.94% ROI).
- 74-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -4.31% ROI
- 58-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -9.1% ROI
- 65-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.02% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 64-71 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -6.17% ROI).
- 76-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 6.17% ROI
- 60-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.5 Units / -11.1% ROI
- 69-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 2.33% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (154/252) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (873/1,648) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 183 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% (417/766) against Ranger Suarez since last season — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .255 (13-for-51) against Ranger Suarez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .350 — 96th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (171/381) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (58/317) against Wade Miley since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 53% of the time (257/489) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (527/947) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 183 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 7-53 (.117) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Phillies are 26-106 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Phillies are 20-13 (.606) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Phillies are 19-107 (.151) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 19-9 (.679) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Brewers are 17-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Brewers are 18-35 (.340) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Brewers are 30-17 (.638) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.051 (147 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .915 (688 PA’s) against RHP over the last 30 days (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Phillies hitters are slugging .424 against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Phillies hitters are slugging .450 at home since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .234 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .355 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Brewers are batting just .232 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,313 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 177 of 2,633 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last 30 days (25 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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