- The Phillies are -140 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Dakota Hudson
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Philadelphia Phillies (-140) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+115) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Phillies vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 81-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 71-77 ATS.
Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +120 | O 9.5 -115 | -140 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -145 | U 9.5 -105 | +115 |
Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Cardinals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+15.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+14.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+14.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+13.35 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jordan Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 games at home (+10.15 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jordan Walker has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+9.85 Units / 35% ROI)
Cardinals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cardinals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Cardinals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
| Dakota Hudson | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -175 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 65-83 against the Run Line (-25.1 Units / -13.75% ROI).
- 81-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -3.22% ROI
- 65-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -7.92% ROI
- 71-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -0.25% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 71-77 against the Run Line (-12.15 Units / -6.46% ROI).
- 65-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.2 Units / -17.06% ROI
- 70-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -4.98% ROI
- 71-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -3.45% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 58% (404/699) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (30/179) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (230/1,097) against Taijuan Walker this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 44% (564/1,284) against Taijuan Walker this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — sixth Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (170/851) against Dakota Hudson since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 62% (1,438/2,302) against right-handed batters in 2022 — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has a strikeout rate of just 13% (115 SO in 881 PAs) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 58% (955/1,635) vs left-handed batters since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Phillies are 7-59 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 27-110 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 10-119 (.078) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Phillies are 79-44 (.642) after a win as favorites since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cardinals are 27-10 (.730) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 3-63 (.045) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Cardinals are just 16-35 (.314) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Cardinals are 26-17 (.605) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies hitters are slugging .506 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Phillies hitters are slugging .455 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,815 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 42% in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Cardinals are batting .283 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .332 (5,779 PA’s) at home since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (3,653 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in close and late situations since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 30 days (26 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Romero (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Elbow, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Foot, D10
- Nolan Gorman (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Lat, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Guillermo Zuñiga (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Oblique, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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