- The Phillies are -140 favorites vs the Cubs
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Philadelphia Phillies (-140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+115) on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Phillies vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 41-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 42-35 ATS.
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +120 | O 8.5 -120 | -140 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -145 | U 8.5 +100 | +115 |
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+13.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 50 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Josh Harrison has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.65 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+15.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+14.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+12.45 Units / 68% ROI)
- Marcus Stroman has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+8.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+5.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+9.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 31-47 against the Run Line (-23.5 Units / -23.68% ROI).
- 41-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -4.72% ROI
- 29-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.95 Units / -19.8% ROI
- 42-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.3 Units / 11.96% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 42-35 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 5.47% ROI).
- 37-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -4.81% ROI
- 36-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -7.17% ROI
- 38-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -1.84% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (104/283) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .143 (5-for-35) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OPS of just .386 (224 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .496 — 91st Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (233/782) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (124/288) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 54% of the time (285/527) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 36% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has allowed a slugging percentage of .621 (41 Total Bases / 66 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — fourth Percentile.
Drew Smyly has a strikeout rate of just 11% (9 SO in 80 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — fourth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are 21-88 (.193) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Phillies are 19-5 (.792) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .605.
The Phillies are just 7-14 (.333) after a road loss this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Phillies are 13-8 (.619) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 18-27 (.400) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.
The Cubs are just 5-16 (.238) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .605.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .501 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have pulled just 44% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .235 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Phillies are batting .254 since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .292 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.13 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 48 of 679 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 34 double plays in 507 opportunities (7%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 46 of 672 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 712 times this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .219 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Cubs vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Wrist, D10
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
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