Phillies vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (83-70) are -200 favorites vs the Cubs (68-86)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (10-12), 3.27 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski (2-1), 2.45 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+165) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Phillies vs Cubs Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 83-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 76-78 ATS.

Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -110O 6.5 +100-200
Cubs +1.5 -110U 6.5 -120+165

Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 51 away games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 62 away games (+12.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 49 away games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games at home (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)

Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +1350 0.5
Christopher Morel 0.5 +1150 0.5
Jesus Quiroz 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Ian Happ 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000

Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -105 0.5 -135
Christopher Morel 0.5 +120 0.5 -175
Jesus Quiroz 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +100 0.5 -140
Ian Happ 0.5 -130 0.5 -110

Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Christopher Morel 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jesus Quiroz 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Ian Happ 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hayden Wesneski 4.5 -140 4.5 -105
Aaron Nola 7.5 -105 7.5 -135
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 away games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-76 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -1.23% ROI).

  • 83-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 0.27% ROI
  • 77-70 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.05 Units / 0.03% ROI
  • 70-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -8.2% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 76-78 against the Run Line (-14.25 Units / -7.2% ROI).

  • 68-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -5.55% ROI
  • 63-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.8 Units / -14.04% ROI
  • 79-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 5.92% ROI

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 10.3 (113/11) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.1 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 29 of 760 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (1,976/2,856) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (532/764) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Hayden Wesneski: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 7% (1/15) against Hayden Wesneski against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.

Hayden Wesneski has allowed an OPS of just .457 (29 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .665 — 84th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (6/56) against Hayden Wesneski this month (4 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 26% (9/35) against Hayden Wesneski — 9th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 91st Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Phillies are 14-52 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Phillies are 11-53 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 68-22 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Cubs are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Cubs are just 52-6 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Phillies hitters are slugging .545 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.

The Phillies are batting .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .153.

Phillies hitters are slugging just .342 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .561.

Phillies hitters have 20 strikeouts in 59 PA’s (34%) against LHP over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .180 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.

The Cubs are batting .372 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Cubs hitters have 767 strikeouts in 3,068 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 181 of 2,783 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,644 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH this season (3,718 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,115 of 12,081 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.