- The Phillies (83-70) are -200 favorites vs the Cubs (68-86)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (10-12), 3.27 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski (2-1), 2.45 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+165) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Phillies vs Cubs Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 83-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 76-78 ATS.
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | O 6.5 +100 | -200 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -110 | U 6.5 -120 | +165 |
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 51 away games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 62 away games (+12.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 49 away games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games at home (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -140 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 -105 |
| Aaron Nola | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 away games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-76 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -1.23% ROI).
- 83-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 0.27% ROI
- 77-70 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.05 Units / 0.03% ROI
- 70-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -8.2% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 76-78 against the Run Line (-14.25 Units / -7.2% ROI).
- 68-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -5.55% ROI
- 63-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.8 Units / -14.04% ROI
- 79-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 5.92% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 10.3 (113/11) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.1 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 29 of 760 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (1,976/2,856) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (532/764) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 7% (1/15) against Hayden Wesneski against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has allowed an OPS of just .457 (29 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .665 — 84th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (6/56) against Hayden Wesneski this month (4 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 26% (9/35) against Hayden Wesneski — 9th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 91st Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are 14-52 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies are 11-53 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 68-22 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cubs are just 52-6 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .545 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Phillies are batting .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Phillies hitters are slugging just .342 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .561.
Phillies hitters have 20 strikeouts in 59 PA’s (34%) against LHP over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .180 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Cubs are batting .372 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Cubs hitters have 767 strikeouts in 3,068 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 181 of 2,783 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,644 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH this season (3,718 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,115 of 12,081 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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