- The Phillies (83-71) are -190 favorites vs the Cubs (69-86)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (10-5), 3.38 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad (1-2), 4.28 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (-190) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+155) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Phillies vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 83-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 77-78 ATS.
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -115 | O 8 -115 | -190 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -105 | U 8 -105 | +155 |
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 51 away games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 62 away games (+12.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 49 away games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games at home (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| David Bote | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -165 |
| Ranger Suarez | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+10.65 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-77 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -1.81% ROI).
- 83-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -0.58% ROI
- 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -0.65% ROI
- 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -7.55% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-78 against the Run Line (-13.25 Units / -6.66% ROI).
- 69-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -4.57% ROI
- 63-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.95 Units / -14.62% ROI
- 80-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.05 Units / 6.46% ROI
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (20/158) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.4 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (111 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 89.6
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (23/168) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .221 (69 Total Bases / 312 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Javier Assad has allowed 5 stolen bases this month (5 games) — tied for most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad has walked 11 of 84 batters (13%) this month (5 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Javier Assad has walked 7 of 44 left-handed batters (16%) this month (5 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are 14-53 (.209) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies are 11-54 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 67-5 (.931) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are 68-23 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cubs are just 33-44 (.429) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Cubs are just 31-112 (.217) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Cubs are just 6-63 (.087) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .542 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Phillies hitters are slugging .423 this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Phillies hitters have 21 strikeouts in 58 PA’s (36%) against LHP over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .498 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 381 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Cubs hitters have 2,985 strikeouts in 11,782 PA’s (25%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 181 of 2,791 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,667 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .250 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,117 of 12,122 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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