Phillies vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 29, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (83-71) are -190 favorites vs the Cubs (69-86)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (10-5), 3.38 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad (1-2), 4.28 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Philadelphia Phillies (-190) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+155) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Phillies vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 83-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 77-78 ATS.

Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -115O 8 -115-190
Cubs +1.5 -105U 8 -105+155

Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 51 away games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 62 away games (+12.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 49 away games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games at home (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)

Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
David Bote 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Jesus Quiroz 0.5 +1100 0.5
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Ian Happ 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
David Bote 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Jesus Quiroz 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Ian Happ 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
David Bote 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Ian Happ 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Javier Assad 4.5 +115 4.5 -165
Ranger Suarez 5.5 -105 5.5 -135
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+10.65 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 52% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-77 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -1.81% ROI).

  • 83-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -0.58% ROI
  • 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -0.65% ROI
  • 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -7.55% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 77-78 against the Run Line (-13.25 Units / -6.66% ROI).

  • 69-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -4.57% ROI
  • 63-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.95 Units / -14.62% ROI
  • 80-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.05 Units / 6.46% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (20/158) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.4 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (111 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 89.6

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (23/168) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .221 (69 Total Bases / 312 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 100th Percentile.

Javier Assad: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Javier Assad has allowed 5 stolen bases this month (5 games) — tied for most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Javier Assad has walked 11 of 84 batters (13%) this month (5 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Javier Assad has walked 7 of 44 left-handed batters (16%) this month (5 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Phillies are 14-53 (.209) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Phillies are 11-54 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 67-5 (.931) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Phillies are 68-23 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Cubs are just 33-44 (.429) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Cubs are just 31-112 (.217) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Cubs are just 6-63 (.087) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

Phillies hitters are slugging .542 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Phillies hitters are slugging .423 this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Phillies hitters have 21 strikeouts in 58 PA’s (36%) against LHP over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .498 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 381 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Cubs hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Cubs hitters have 2,985 strikeouts in 11,782 PA’s (25%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 181 of 2,791 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,667 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .250 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,117 of 12,122 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.