Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 29, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (72-56) are -175 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (59-67)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (8-5), 3.37 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (6-13), 4.53 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Philadelphia Phillies (-175) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+145) on Monday, August 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 71-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 72-51 ATS.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -110O 9 -115-175
Diamondbacks +1.5 -110U 9 -105+145

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 52 games (+16.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 46 away games (+14.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+13.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 50 away games (+13.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 40 games (+12.45 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 44 of his last 87 games (+18.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 58 of his last 87 games (+12.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games at home (+10.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 19 games at home (+10.30 Units / 54% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carson Kelly 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Christian Walker 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Emmanuel Rivera 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +1200 0.5
Jake McCarthy 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carson Kelly 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Christian Walker 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Emmanuel Rivera 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Jake McCarthy 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

Diamondbacks vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carson Kelly 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Christian Walker 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Emmanuel Rivera 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Jake McCarthy 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Madison Bumgarner 4.5 +125 4.5 -175
Ranger Suarez 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 70 of their last 123 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games (+10.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 away games (+8.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+7.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 48 games (+22.90 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.00 Units / 32% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 66-60 against the Run Line (+4.7 Units / 3.07% ROI).

  • 71-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 3.42% ROI
  • 61-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -2.67% ROI
  • 59-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -5.59% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 72-51 against the Run Line (+18.5 Units / 11.7% ROI).

  • 58-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.47% ROI
  • 55-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.1 Units / -10.47% ROI
  • 63-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 0.99% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (17/140) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .324 (33 Total Bases / 102 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: .574 — 100th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1900.5 RPM on fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 2227.1 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (125/214) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.

Madison Bumgarner: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

30 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

30 of Madison Bumgarner’s 63 breaking pitch strikeouts (48%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

61 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .444 (28-for-63) against Madison Bumgarner on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .328 — third Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Phillies are 13-42 (.236) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Phillies are 11-42 (.208) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 57-2 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Diamondbacks are just 99-30 (.767) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 110-19 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 27-35 (.435) on the road this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (1,383 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

The Phillies have a winning percentage of 56% on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .772 (1,383 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Phillies hitters are slugging .515 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .209 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 44% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .200 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Phillies have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (3,087 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Phillies pitchers have walked 165 of 2,564 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
  • Caleb Smith (Diamondbacks): Hand, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.