- The Phillies are -110 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Phillies starting pitcher: Matthew Strahm
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) on Monday, June 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 32-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 40-25 ATS.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 10 +100 | -110 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -165 | U 10 -120 | -110 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+15.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+15.15 Units / 80% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 49 games (+14.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+14.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+14.25 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+12.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ryne Nelson has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+9.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Henry | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -150 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 48 games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+7.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 64 games (+17.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 62 games (+17.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 57 games (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 57 games (+11.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 26-39 against the Run Line (-20.65 Units / -24.51% ROI).
- 32-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -10.72% ROI
- 26-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -14.04% ROI
- 33-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.65 Units / 6.47% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 40-25 against the Run Line (+15.8 Units / 19.77% ROI).
- 40-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.95 Units / 20.3% ROI
- 31-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -4.95% ROI
- 31-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -3.34% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .091 (3-for-33) against Matt Strahm on low fastballs since last season — 2nd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .266 — 99th Percentile.
Matt Strahm has a strikeout rate of 42% (15 SO in 36 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (52/157) against Matt Strahm since last season — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.
Matt Strahm has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 28 opportunities (0%) in close and late situations since last season — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — eighth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tommy Henry has a strike rate of just 59% (103/175) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 68% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 21% (11/52) against Tommy Henry with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 98th Percentile.
Tommy Henry has a strikeout rate of just 14% (27 SO in 189 PAs) this season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (13/21) against Tommy Henry — 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 90th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are just 2-22 (.083) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Phillies are just 6-14 (.300) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Phillies are just 26-35 (.426) after a loss as favorites since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Diamondbacks are just 82-21 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 98-9 (.916) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are 12-8 (.600) after a road win this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .332 (1,681 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Phillies hitters are slugging .513 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters are slugging .416 against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have just 325 strikeouts in 1,714 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .548 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .440 against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (185/8,416) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 26 double plays in 422 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 29th hardest ball in play hit (118.2 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 115.8).
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (293.1 IP) on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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