- The Diamondbacks are -135 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) on Wednesday, June 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 33-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 41-26 ATS.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -105 | +115 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -115 | -135 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 56.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+13.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+12.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.30 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ryne Nelson has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 71% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Ranger Suarez | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 50 games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 66 games (+5.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 25 away games (+4.10 Units / 14% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 66 games (+17.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 64 games (+16.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 59 games (+12.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 59 games (+10.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.00 Units / 24% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 27-40 against the Run Line (-20.45 Units / -23.71% ROI).
- 33-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.85 Units / -10.63% ROI
- 28-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -8 Units / -10.89% ROI
- 33-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 3.31% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 41-26 against the Run Line (+15.4 Units / 18.59% ROI).
- 41-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.95 Units / 19.82% ROI
- 33-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -2.14% ROI
- 31-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -6.26% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (459/797) since last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 62% — seventh Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 61% (1,541/2,524) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (314/568) against Ranger Suarez since last season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has located his fastball inside 47% of the time (809/1,734) since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .202 (55-for-272) against Merrill Kelly this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 91st Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .181 (25-for-138) against Merrill Kelly this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .163 (20-for-123) against Merrill Kelly’s non-fastballs this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — 89th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of .515 (17 Total Bases / 33 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 11th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Phillies are 20-87 (.187) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Phillies are just 27-35 (.435) after a loss as favorites since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.
The Phillies are 11-6 (.647) after a home win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .550.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Diamondbacks are just 99-9 (.917) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are 29-2 (.935) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .459.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .268 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies hitters have drawn 47 walks in 807 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .302 (807 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .548 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 338 strikeouts in 1,766 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .198 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Phillies have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 28 double plays in 439 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.45 (310.1 IP) on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 3 of 108 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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