- The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (-135) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) on Thursday, June 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 34-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 41-27 ATS.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +120 | O 9 -105 | -135 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -145 | U 9 -115 | +115 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 41 games (+13.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.30 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+11.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ryne Nelson has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 71% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Ryne Nelson | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -175 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 51 games (+7.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 away games (+5.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 games (+16.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 65 games (+15.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 60 games (+8.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 28-40 against the Run Line (-19.45 Units / -22.09% ROI).
- 34-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.85 Units / -9.45% ROI
- 28-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -12.21% ROI
- 34-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 4.59% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 41-27 against the Run Line (+14.4 Units / 17.17% ROI).
- 41-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.75 Units / 18.17% ROI
- 33-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -3.55% ROI
- 32-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -4.81% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has allowed a just .111 SLG vs right-handed batters (second best)– 99th Percentile and .600 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (fifth worst among qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (39/100) against Aaron Nola over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (276/400) in two strike counts this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 93rd Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed at least one HR in each of his last 10 games dating back to April 21st — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has struck out just 9% (12/134) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 15% (4 SO in 26 PAs) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has an ERA of 6.62 (35.1 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.43 — fourth Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OBP of .424 (132 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .314 — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are 8-3 (.727) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Phillies are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .216.
The Phillies are just 3-19 (.136) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Phillies are 33-25 (.569) after a road win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Diamondbacks are just 90-15 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 26-12 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Diamondbacks are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .873.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .301 (810 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 47 walks in 810 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .512 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .197 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .312 with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .537 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 30 double plays in 445 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (273.0 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Phillies pitchers have walked 137 of 2,025 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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