Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 3

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 03, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies are +100 favorites vs the Dodgers
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Gavin Stone
  • Watch the game on SportsNet LA

The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Phillies vs Dodgers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Phillies are 15-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 15-16 ATS.

Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +155O 9 -115+100
Dodgers +1.5 -190U 9 -105-120

Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Phillies vs Dodgers and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Max Muncy has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Trayce Thompson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Dodgers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Muncy 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Will Smith 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Bryce Harper 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Miguel Vargas 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Dodgers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Muncy 0.5 -145 0.5 +110
Will Smith 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Bryce Harper 1.5 +185 1.5 -250
Miguel Vargas 0.5 -160 0.5 +120
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 -160 0.5 +125

Dodgers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Muncy 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Will Smith 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Bryce Harper 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Miguel Vargas 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +225 0.5 -300

Dodgers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 5.5 -135 5.5 +100
Stone 4.5 -115 4.5 -110
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.15 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+1.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 13-18 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -25.23% ROI).

  • 15-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -10.72% ROI
  • 14-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -13.14% ROI
  • 17-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 5.87% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 15-16 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 1.34% ROI).

  • 18-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -7.4% ROI
  • 18-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 14.22% ROI
  • 12-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -21.57% ROI

Aaron Nola has walked 38 of 952 batters (4%) since last season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 69% (660/958) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .108 (37 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .287 — 98th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (12/36) against Aaron Nola this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 14th Percentile.

Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Phillies are 17-71 (.193) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .121.

The Phillies are just 0-5 (.000) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.

The Phillies are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are just 0-7 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Dodgers are 128-55 (.699) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Dodgers are 68-30 (.694) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Dodgers are 126-53 (.704) at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Dodgers are 6-52 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

28% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Phillies hitters are slugging .523 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .331 (2,127 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Dodgers hitters have chased 23% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Dodgers are batting just .198 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.

Dodgers hitters have a swing rate of just 43% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .774 (2,269 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.

Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 12 double plays in 203 opportunities (6%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 8% of innings played this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

The Phillies have allowed 1.55 runs per game (48/31) in late innings this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.

Dodgers pitchers have walked 79 of 1,146 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Dodgers have allowed 3.37 runs per game (320/95) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.06 (1554.1 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

The Dodgers have won 48% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Julio Martinez (Dodgers): Back, D10
  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
  • Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
  • Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
  • Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
  • Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10

Bet now on Phillies vs Dodgers and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.