- The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Guardians
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Phillies vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 52-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 47-49 ATS.
Phillies vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | O 8 +100 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -120 | +100 |
Phillies vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 56.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+13.80 Units / 92% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+12.15 Units / 73% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Trea Turner | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Trea Turner | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Trea Turner | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Gavin Williams | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 79 games (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 away games (+12.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 away games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+6.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 95 games (+6.50 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+15.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+7.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+4.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-57 against the Run Line (-28 Units / -22.66% ROI).
- 52-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -2.78% ROI
- 37-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.9 Units / -15.93% ROI
- 49-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.7 Units / 8.27% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 47-49 against the Run Line (-2.5 Units / -2.05% ROI).
- 47-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.55 Units / -9.39% ROI
- 39-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.7 Units / -18.54% ROI
- 53-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.75 Units / 10.23% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 49% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (154/316) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (139/226) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 61% (1,843/3,032) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (556/1,035) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has walked 5 of 29 left-handed batters (17%) — 9th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 16th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (7/33) against Gavin Williams with two-strikes — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — fourth Percentile.
Gavin Williams has not allowed a walk in his last 52 PAs against a RHH dating back to June 21st — Austin Gomber has the longest active streak at 123.
Gavin Williams has allowed an OBP of just .212 (52 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days (5 games) — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .285 — 92nd Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Phillies are 23-93 (.198) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Phillies are 18-8 (.692) after a road win this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are just 29-35 (.453) after a loss as favorites since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Phillies are 67-33 (.670) after a win as favorites since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .597.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Guardians are 27-85 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Guardians are 11-28 (.282) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Guardians are 18-93 (.162) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Guardians are 87-12 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have drawn 70 walks in 1,124 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies are batting .261 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .262 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,268 strikeouts in 7,149 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,794 strikeouts in 9,800 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 473 strikeouts in 2,565 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 246 of 3,709 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 145 of 2,324 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 57 of 864 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.83 (1144.1 IP) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Guardians vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
Bet now on Phillies vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
