- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Guardians
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Guardians starting pitcher: Xzavion Curry
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+110) on Sunday, July 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Phillies vs Guardians Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 52-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-49 ATS.
Phillies vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -120 | -130 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -150 | U 9 +100 | +110 |
Phillies vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 65.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+14.15 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.50 Units / 74% ROI)
Guardians vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Guardians vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Guardians vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
| Xzavion Curry | 1.5 -150 | 1.5 +110 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 81 games (+12.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 97 games (+6.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 41 away games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 20 away games (+0.90 Units / 3% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+14.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+11.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+10.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+6.65 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-59 against the Run Line (-30 Units / -23.89% ROI).
- 52-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -4.54% ROI
- 38-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.05 Units / -15.73% ROI
- 50-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.65 Units / 8.06% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 49-49 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.4% ROI).
- 49-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.5 Units / -7.6% ROI
- 40-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -18.29% ROI
- 54-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.7 Units / 9.98% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (260/845) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .190 (289 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 92nd Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 19% (27/145) against Aaron Nola this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 91st Percentile.
65% of Aaron Nola’s called strikeouts are outside this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 89th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (18/86) against Xzavion Curry this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Xzavion Curry has located his fastball away 58% of the time (225/386) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 98th Percentile.
Xzavion Curry has a strike rate of 72% (161/222) in two strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 96th Percentile.
Xzavion Curry has a strikeout rate of just 17% (34 SO in 206 PAs) this season — 13th lowest among among 213 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Phillies are 21-6 (.778) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .609.
The Phillies are 18-17 (.514) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are just 29-37 (.439) after a loss as favorites since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Phillies are just 5-29 (.147) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Guardians are 27-85 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians are 11-28 (.282) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The Guardians are 18-93 (.162) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Guardians are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .259 at home since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters are slugging .497 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have drawn 73 walks in 1,127 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,279 strikeouts in 7,183 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,810 strikeouts in 9,869 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 688 strikeouts in 3,706 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 484 strikeouts in 2,599 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (2,398 batted balls) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 147 of 2,342 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.17 (915.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.43 (444.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
Bet now on Phillies vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
