- The Marlins are -130 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (+110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-130) on Tuesday, August 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 57-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 49-58 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -105 | +110 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -115 | -130 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+12.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+11.35 Units / 73% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+10.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.70 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+9.65 Units / 59% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 89 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 49 games (+10.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 105 games (+7.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 46 away games (+6.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 away games (+5.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 74 games (+10.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+6.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.59 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 54 games at home (+4.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 42-64 against the Run Line (-30.5 Units / -22.81% ROI).
- 57-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -3.8% ROI
- 42-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.4 Units / -14.88% ROI
- 54-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.05 Units / 6.92% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 49-58 against the Run Line (-19.35 Units / -13.74% ROI).
- 57-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 3.15% ROI
- 49-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -8.65% ROI
- 54-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -0.17% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 56% (750/1,350) of the time since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (146/237) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (586/1,090) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 61% (1,936/3,178) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .361 (35-for-97) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — first Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (661/919) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 69% (1,369/1,994) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Sandy Alcantara’s pitches (1,076/1,994) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 23-98 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Phillies are 10-5 (.667) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
The Phillies are 68-36 (.654) after a win as favorites since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .592.
The Phillies are 17-99 (.147) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are 5-42 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are 11-120 (.084) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Marlins are 36-5 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Marlins are 15-1 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 309 strikeouts in 1,209 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .607 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Phillies hitters are slugging just .330 over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting .307 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 59 extra-base hits out of 236 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 161 of 2,373 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 67 of 942 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 85 double plays in 681 opportunities (12%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Illness, Day-to-Day
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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