- The Phillies are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Wednesday, August 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 58-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 49-59 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -120 | -125 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 +100 | +105 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+11.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+11.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+10.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.55 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+10.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 90 games (+12.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 50 games (+11.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 106 games (+8.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 47 away games (+5.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 away games (+4.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 75 games (+11.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.64 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+6.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 55 games at home (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.39 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 43-64 against the Run Line (-29.5 Units / -21.77% ROI).
- 58-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -3.03% ROI
- 42-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -15.74% ROI
- 55-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 7.71% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 49-59 against the Run Line (-20.35 Units / -14.35% ROI).
- 57-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.95 Units / 2.17% ROI
- 49-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.35 Units / -9.58% ROI
- 55-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 0.67% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,295/3,038) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (2,287/5,243) in non-two strike counts since the 2021 season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 9% (2/23) against Zack Wheeler — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — second Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (476/1,129) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has walked 17 of 441 batters (4%) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .348 (40-for-115) against Braxton Garrett this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .164 (9-for-55) against Braxton Garrett’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 96th Percentile.
11 of Braxton Garrett’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 8th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 89th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 6-44 (.120) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Phillies are 24-98 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Phillies are 20-17 (.541) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies are 45-27 (.625) after a road win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are 11-120 (.084) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Marlins are just 98-15 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Marlins are 36-5 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Marlins are 15-1 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .783.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting just .083 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have drawn 36 walks in 233 PA’s (15%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting .310 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 61 extra-base hits out of 247 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 162 of 2,382 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (439.0 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Jacob Realmuto (Phillies): Hand, Day-to-Day
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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