Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 15, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (43-45) are -165 favorites vs the Phillies (46-43)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (4-3), 4.53 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (9-3), 1.72 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Philadelphia Phillies (+140) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-165) on Friday, July 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 46-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-45 ATS.

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -160O 6.5 +100+140
Marlins -1.5 +135U 6.5 -120-165

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 61.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 36 away games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 away games (+11.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Brian Anderson 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Brian Anderson 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 -140 0.5 +100

Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Brian Anderson 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sandy Alcantara 6.5 +100 6.5 -140
Kyle Gibson 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 44 away games (+12.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games (+7.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+5.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 13 games at home (+0.85 Units / 6% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 46-43 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 2.53% ROI).

  • 46-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -4.36% ROI
  • 46-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 1.12% ROI
  • 41-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.6 Units / -9.79% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 43-45 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -5.51% ROI).

  • 43-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -4.83% ROI
  • 42-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -3.8% ROI
  • 42-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -4.02% ROI

Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 6% (3 SO in 52 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has struck out just 14% (26/180) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — sixth Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has allowed an OBP of .429 (70 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — first Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of 23% (16 SO in 69 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 92nd Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (17/140) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (61/349) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (198/349) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .193 (88-for-457) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 94th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 8-32 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-31 (.205) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Phillies are 37-2 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 2-36 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Marlins are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .332 (961 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Phillies hitters have drawn 97 walks in 961 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .519 (200 PA’s) on the road this month (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.

24% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Marlins hitters have 648 strikeouts in 2,356 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (660 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .615 (660 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .354 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH since the start of last season (6,086 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 2nd hardest ball in play hit (113.6 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 116.3).

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Miguel Rojas (Marlins): Tooth, Day-to-Day
  • Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Personal, Day-to-Day
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.