Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 16, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Phillies (47-43) are -110 favorites vs the Marlins (43-46)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: (-), ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 47-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-46 ATS.

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +150O 7.5 -105-110
Marlins +1.5 -185U 7.5 -115-110

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+15.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 36 away games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 away games (+11.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+16.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 40 games at home (+12.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.20 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Brian Anderson 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jorge Soler 0.5 +333 0.5 -600

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Brian Anderson 0.5 -160 0.5 +110
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Jorge Soler 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Brian Anderson 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Jorge Soler 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ranger Suarez 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
Meyer 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 85 games (+10.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+1.85 Units / 12% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 47-43 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 3.4% ROI).

  • 47-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -2.99% ROI
  • 46-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -0.05% ROI
  • 42-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -8.67% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 43-46 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -6.31% ROI).

  • 43-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -6.41% ROI
  • 42-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -4.93% ROI
  • 43-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -2.96% ROI

Nick Nelson has a strike rate of just 57% (211/368) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Nick Nelson has walked 13 of 92 right-handed batters (14%) this season — 12th highest among among 104 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 11th Percentile.

Nick Nelson has a strike rate of just 59% (428/722) this season — tied for 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (20/121) against Nick Nelson with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.

Max Meyer: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-32 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Phillies are 9-31 (.225) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .117.

The Phillies are just 33-6 (.846) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Marlins are just 4-30 (.118) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

The Marlins are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

The Marlins are just 15-134 (.101) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.

Phillies hitters have drawn 97 walks in 961 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Phillies hitters have just 8 strikeouts in 46 PA’s (17%) against LHP this month (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .504 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .441.

The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .642 (2,362 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Marlins hitters have 652 strikeouts in 2,362 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .290 (2,362 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .281 (666 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 1.75 (36.0 IP) against division opponents this month (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 2,256 times since the start of last season — 4th fewest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.30 (1123.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.

Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Personal, Day-to-Day
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.