- The Phillies (47-43) are -110 favorites vs the Marlins (43-46)
- Phillies starting pitcher: – (-), – ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 47-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-46 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -105 | -110 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -115 | -110 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+15.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 36 away games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 away games (+11.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+16.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 40 games at home (+12.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
| Meyer | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 85 games (+10.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+1.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 47-43 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 3.4% ROI).
- 47-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -2.99% ROI
- 46-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -0.05% ROI
- 42-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -8.67% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 43-46 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -6.31% ROI).
- 43-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -6.41% ROI
- 42-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -4.93% ROI
- 43-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -2.96% ROI
–: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Nelson has a strike rate of just 57% (211/368) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Nick Nelson has walked 13 of 92 right-handed batters (14%) this season — 12th highest among among 104 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 11th Percentile.
Nick Nelson has a strike rate of just 59% (428/722) this season — tied for 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (20/121) against Nick Nelson with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.
Max Meyer: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-32 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Phillies are 9-31 (.225) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .117.
The Phillies are just 33-6 (.846) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Marlins are just 4-30 (.118) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Marlins are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Marlins are just 15-134 (.101) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have drawn 97 walks in 961 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies hitters have just 8 strikeouts in 46 PA’s (17%) against LHP this month (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .504 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .441.
The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .642 (2,362 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Marlins hitters have 652 strikeouts in 2,362 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .290 (2,362 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .281 (666 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 1.75 (36.0 IP) against division opponents this month (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 2,256 times since the start of last season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.30 (1123.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Personal, Day-to-Day
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
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