• The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Marlins
• Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | NSPA

The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-115) on July 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Phillies are 57-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 54-52 ATS.

Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 3-8, 5.84 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 10-6, 4.06 ERA

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 43% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 41% ROI)
• Gabriel Rincones Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+15.30 Units / 255% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.75 Units / 49% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.65 Units / 29% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 35 away games (+12.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+4.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 15% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+8.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 40-66 against the Run Line (-32.95 Units / -26.1% ROI).

• 57-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -3.68% ROI
• 45-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -15.75% ROI
• 58-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.1 Units / 7.75% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 54-52 against the Run Line (-5.3 Units / -3.72% ROI).

• 53-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -0.44% ROI
• 55-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 0.63% ROI
• 49-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -9.49% ROI

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are just 5-20 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .371.

The Phillies are 12-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Phillies are 5-46 (.098) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Phillies are 11-44 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .137.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .755.

The Marlins are just 22-32 (.407) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.

The Marlins are just 22-32 (.407) after a loss since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .755.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

The Phillies are just 16-41 (.281) against the run line (-45.6% ROI) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.

The Phillies are just 9-33 (.214) against the run line (-49.4% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .459.

The Phillies are just 40-67 (.374) against the run line (-23.4% ROI) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies have scored first in 61% of their games this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB.

The Marlins have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .755.

Games involving the Marlins went UNDER in 58% of their games (10.9% ROI) after a win this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Phillies pitchers this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 100 stolen bases this season — 2nd most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .378 this season — 4th best in MLB.

Opponents are hitting just .232 against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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