• The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
• Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | NSPA

The Philadelphia Phillies (-175) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+145) on July 29, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Phillies are 57-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 54-53 ATS.

Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 9-5, 3.30 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 0-2, 4.46 ERA

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 64.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+13.05 Units / 58% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.70 Units / 41% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 49% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 34% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+14.30 Units / 204% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.60 Units / 60% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.75 Units / 49% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.65 Units / 33% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+13.00 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+4.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.10 Units / 6% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+9.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 41-66 against the Run Line (-31.95 Units / -24.94% ROI).

• 57-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -4.3% ROI
• 45-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.7 Units / -16.53% ROI
• 59-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.1 Units / 8.52% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 54-53 against the Run Line (-6.3 Units / -4.39% ROI).

• 54-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 0.36% ROI
• 55-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.29% ROI
• 50-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.1 Units / -8.55% ROI

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are just 5-21 (.192) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .369.

The Phillies are 12-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.

The Phillies are 5-47 (.096) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Phillies are 8-47 (.145) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 22-32 (.407) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .753.

The Marlins are just 22-32 (.407) after a loss since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .753.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .447 (2,189 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters are slugging .760 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .284 (1,989 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .644 (1,989 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .310 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .285 this season — best in MLB.

The Marlins are batting .252 on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .284 against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Phillies pitchers this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.40 (507.2 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Marlins have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have not picked-off any runners from first base this season — fewest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .376 this season — 4th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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