- The Phillies are -110 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Monday, July 31, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 56-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 49-57 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -115 | -110 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -105 | -110 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 54.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+17.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+16.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+15.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 60% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.20 Units / 44% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cave | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 87 games (+9.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 48 games (+9.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 104 games (+6.40 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 away games (+5.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 away games (+4.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 73 games (+10.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 33 games at home (+8.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 26 games at home (+4.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 41-64 against the Run Line (-32.15 Units / -24.23% ROI).
- 56-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -4.52% ROI
- 42-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.25 Units / -14.03% ROI
- 53-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.05 Units / 6.11% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 49-57 against the Run Line (-17.45 Units / -12.56% ROI).
- 57-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 4.04% ROI
- 49-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -7.75% ROI
- 53-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -1.02% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (17/125) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 61% (1,132/1,841) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (74/419) against Taijuan Walker this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 112 of Taijuan Walker’s 555 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (64/356) against Edward Cabrera since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 24 of 124 batters (19%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 79 of 612 batters (13%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 46 of 321 batters (14%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 19-17 (.528) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are just 9-18 (.333) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Phillies are 23-98 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Phillies are just 6-26 (.188) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are 34-4 (.895) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Marlins are 15-1 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Marlins are 36-5 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Marlins are 33-21 (.611) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 70 extra-base hits out of 213 total hits (just 33%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters are slugging just .335 over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Phillies are batting .251 with two outs since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 59 extra-base hits out of 235 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins are batting .307 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 159 of 2,364 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 65 of 933 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Illness, Day-to-Day
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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