- The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Friday, July 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 47-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 42-47 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -120 | -135 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 +100 | +115 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 away games (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+9.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+11.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+11.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games (+15.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 15 away games (+13.25 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+10.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 45% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+15.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 56 games (+13.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+6.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 37-49 against the Run Line (-19.25 Units / -17.53% ROI).
- 47-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -2.54% ROI
- 32-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -19.6% ROI
- 46-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.2 Units / 11.86% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 42-47 against the Run Line (-13.55 Units / -11.61% ROI).
- 51-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.45 Units / 11.23% ROI
- 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -9.56% ROI
- 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.97% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .513 (20-for-39) against Zack Wheeler on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — first Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.0 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (145 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (437/1,026) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,189/2,775) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (540/756) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has an ERA of 4.93 this season — seventh worst among qualified SPs– 10th Percentile. He had an ERA of 2.28 last season — fifth best among qualified SPs– 91st Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has an ERA of 7.63 (30.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.00 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .388 (31-for-80) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — third Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 9-5 (.643) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Phillies are just 10-16 (.385) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 18-17 (.514) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Phillies are 63-32 (.663) after a win as favorites since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are 5-33 (.132) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 12-56 (.176) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Marlins are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Marlins are just 11-9 (.550) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .245 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have drawn 61 walks in 977 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting .308 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 50 extra-base hits out of 195 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Phillies pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Phillies have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
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