- The Marlins are -125 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-125) on Saturday, July 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 48-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-47 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -110 | +105 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -110 | -125 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 56.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+9.35 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+9.50 Units / 99% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 70 games (+15.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 16 away games (+14.25 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 30 games (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+7.30 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 79 games (+14.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 57 games (+14.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+6.35 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 37-50 against the Run Line (-20.25 Units / -18.28% ROI).
- 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.05 Units / -1.69% ROI
- 32-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -19.35% ROI
- 46-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.2 Units / 11.74% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 43-47 against the Run Line (-12.55 Units / -10.62% ROI).
- 51-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.45 Units / 10.24% ROI
- 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -9.44% ROI
- 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.96% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 49% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (134/276) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 58% (159/276) in two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1913.3 RPM on fastballs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 2233.0 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (129/214) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (182/400) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 15 of 356 batters (4%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .174 (8-for-46) against Braxton Garrett’s elevated fastball this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 87th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 2 of 130 batters (1%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 22-90 (.196) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Phillies are 18-8 (.692) after a road win this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Phillies are 20-6 (.769) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Phillies are 9-5 (.643) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are 5-33 (.132) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are just 3-19 (.136) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Marlins are 9-28 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Marlins are 12-1 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .176 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Phillies hitters are slugging .244 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Phillies are batting .256 since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Marlins hitters have 74 extra-base hits out of 307 total hits (just 24%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% against Phillies pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
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