- The Phillies are +100 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-120) on Sunday, July 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 48-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 44-47 ATS.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +170 | O 8 -175 | +100 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -210 | U 8 +145 | -120 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bailey Falter has hit the Strikeouts Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.30 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+9.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 71 games (+13.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 away games (+13.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.10 Units / 24% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 80 games (+15.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+5.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 37-51 against the Run Line (-22.45 Units / -19.87% ROI).
- 48-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -2.53% ROI
- 33-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.6 Units / -18.13% ROI
- 46-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +10 Units / 10.35% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-47 against the Run Line (-10.75 Units / -9.02% ROI).
- 52-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.45 Units / 11.02% ROI
- 42-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.35 Units / -8.35% ROI
- 46-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.25% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (116/307) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (245/806) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last seven games dating back to May 31st — Kolby Allard has the longest active streak at 8.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .198 (257 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 89th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has induced opposing hitters to ground into 12 double plays in 47 opportunities (26%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (258/838) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 87th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 51% (115/226) against Jesus Luzardo on sliders this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has pitched 23.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 9-5 (.643) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Phillies are 17-90 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Phillies are 22-90 (.196) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Phillies are 64-32 (.667) after a win as favorites since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 3-19 (.136) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Marlins are 70-9 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Marlins are 5-33 (.132) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are just 11-9 (.550) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 61 walks in 1,017 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies are batting .255 since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters are slugging .498 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 51 extra-base hits out of 203 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Marlins are batting .309 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have 74 extra-base hits out of 311 total hits (just 24%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Phillies pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 10 of 249 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 30 days (28 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Harrison (Phillies): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Arm, Day-to-Day
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
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