- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Monday, June 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 42-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 37-32 ATS.
Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Mick Abel 1-0, 2.35 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 3-7, 7.19 ERA
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -105 | -110 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -115 | -110 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+12.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+12.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.40 Units / 285% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+7.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+7.90 Units / 88% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+7.50 Units / 68% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 53 games (+13.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 67 games (+9.58 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+7.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 34-36 against the Run Line (-4.85 Units / -5.51% ROI).
- 42-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 2.82% ROI
- 31-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -12.28% ROI
- 37-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 3.91% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 37-32 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.4% ROI).
- 28-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -7.52% ROI
- 36-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -1.56% ROI
- 33-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -8.43% ROI
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Mick Abel (PHI) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mick Abel has allowed a slugging percentage of .565 (13 Total Bases / 23 ABs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .246 — third Percentile.
Mick Abel has a strikeout rate of just 13% (5 SO in 39 PAs) this month (2 games) — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 22% — sixth Percentile.
Mick Abel has a strikeout rate of just 22% (5 SO in 23 PAs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Mick Abel has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 21% — sixth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .369 (72-for-195) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 0 Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 20 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OBP of .430 (235 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .319 — 0 Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 71% (560/787) in two strike counts in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 8-18 (.308) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Phillies are just 17-29 (.370) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 33-123 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 29-59 (.330) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Marlins are just 63-14 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .412 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Phillies are batting .263 against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Phillies batted .270 against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have 287 extra-base hits out of 937 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .286 (1,976 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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