• The Phillies are +100 favorites vs the Marlins
• Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | NSPA

The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-120) on May 2, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Phillies are 13-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 15-17 ATS.

Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Andrew Painter 1-2, 5.26 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 1-0, 3.30 ERA

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Liam Hicks has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+28.00 Units / 560% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+12.25 Units / 82% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.05 Units / 37% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+10.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.30 Units / 37% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 6-26 against the Run Line (-22.35 Units / -60.73% ROI).

• 13-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -24.95% ROI
• 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 2.12% ROI
• 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -9.54% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 15-17 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -9.26% ROI).

• 15-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.38% ROI
• 19-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 19.21% ROI
• 11-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.8 Units / -28% ROI

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 19-63 (.232) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.

The Phillies are 77-6 (.928) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .871.

The Phillies are just 0-9 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Phillies are 56-15 (.789) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .700.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 1-15 (.062) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The Marlins are 14-2 (.875) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.

The Marlins are just 1-5 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Marlins are just 11-3 (.786) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .889.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

The Phillies are batting just .192 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are just 1-11 (.083) against the run line (-85.0% ROI) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.

16% of Phillies’ plate appearances have been three-ball counts (126/806 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .151 with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2025 season — tied for highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .265 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .409 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .277 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 14 double plays in 281 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.00 (828.0 IP) on the road since the 2025 season — 4th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers are throwing just 3.83 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB.

The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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